Will the high stakes of AI and prediction markets inevitably lead to a decline? Gemini (GEMI.US) layoffs of 30% still fail to prevent a single-quarter loss from expanding to 140 million US dollars.

As of the end of March 2026, Gemini Space Station (GEMI.US) has reduced its workforce by approximately 30% since the beginning of the year when it launched its downsizing plan. Previously, the company announced in early February a 25% reduction of employees (involving about 200 people), and further downsizing measures were carried out later that month. The cryptocurrency exchange stated in its latest disclosure on Thursday that it is currently deploying artificial intelligence tools to enhance operational efficiency. According to financial data, the company had a loss of over $500 million last year. Management Shakeup and Global Contraction According to Gemini's shareholder letter, as of March 1, the company, founded by billionaire twins Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, had approximately 445 employees. The New York-based institution stated in its fourth-quarter financial report that it does not provide an operating outlook for 2026 at this time. Along with the downsizing, Gemini is undergoing management changes and a shift in business focus. Shortly after the layoffs, the company's Chief Operating Officer (COO), Chief Financial Officer (CFO), and Chief Legal Officer (CLO) all resigned, leading to concerns in the market about the company's internal governance. Additionally, Gemini is downsizing its global operations, planning to exit the UK, EU, and Australian markets, and focusing its resources on the US and Singapore. The Winklevoss brothers stated in an official blog post that the application of AI technology has increased productivity, enabling a "leaner team" to take on more functions, with the company's future development focusing on the "Gemini Predictions" market prediction platform. Financial Troubles and Market Downturn However, the vision of technological transformation cannot hide the financial difficulties. According to financial disclosures, Gemini's fourth-quarter revenue increased by nearly 40% year-on-year to about $60 million, but losses expanded from $27 million to $140.8 million. For the full year, Gemini's losses amounted to $585 million, including unrealized losses in cryptocurrency assets. The capital markets' reaction has been particularly harsh - plagued by concerns about Gemini's performance and the market in general, the company's stock price has fallen nearly 40% year-to-date; its valuation has plummeted from a high of $4 billion during its listing in September 2025 to less than $700 million currently, a decrease of over 80%. Citigroup Global Markets analyst Peter Christiansen downgraded his rating on the cryptocurrency exchange from "Neutral" to "Sell" earlier this week. Christiansen wrote, "We are increasingly concerned that the company may struggle to achieve profitability at scale within a reasonable time frame, which would satisfy equity investors and maintain relevancy in the fiercely competitive cryptocurrency environment where network effects are crucial." Strategic Transformation and Emerging Businesses Under pressure from trading volumes and high expenses, the Winklevoss brothers said they are betting the company's future on emerging businesses. Internally, Gemini is increasingly focused on its nascent prediction market platform, signaling a transformation towards a hot but crowded and controversial area. However, the financial crisis and plummeting market value have also brought regulatory and legal pressure. In March 2026, some shareholders filed a class-action lawsuit, accusing the Winklevoss brothers of misleading statements about the company's financial condition, executive changes, and the feasibility of strategic transformation. In response to the company's flagging stock price, former Olympic rowers the Winklevoss brothers wrote in a letter to shareholders that they are far from feeling discouraged. "As rowers, losing a race provides valuable feedback, letting you know what changes need to be made to win," they wrote. "The road to the Olympics is paved with losses and lessons learned. Therefore, we welcome feedback and love a challenge." Industry Comparison and Historical Challenges Looking back on Gemini's recent performance, the current crisis is a concentrated reflection of its long-standing operational pressures. Since 2022, Gemini has undergone multiple rounds of layoffs, and in 2023, the Genesis bankruptcy incident led to customer funds being frozen, ultimately forcing the company to reach an agreement to return $1.1 billion to users in 2024. From being an industry compliance benchmark to its current predicament, Gemini is facing its most severe challenge since its founding in 2014. It is worth noting that according to market research firm Kaiko, as a relatively small cryptocurrency exchange, Gemini holds less than 1% of the global market share - in this size-driven market, its situation is particularly dire. Similar to other exchanges, Gemini also faces significant challenges: the price of Bitcoin has plummeted over 40% since reaching a historical high in October last year, with price volatility and global economic uncertainty leading many traders to adopt a wait-and-see approach. Crypto.com recently laid off 12% of its workforce to adapt to AI technology developments. The largest cryptocurrency exchange in the US, Coinbase Global Inc., has a workforce of about 4,951 people, which is 11 times that of Gemini. According to cryptocurrency data tracking firm CoinGecko, Coinbase's daily trading volume in the past 24 hours is about 42 times that of Gemini. Gemini went public in September last year, weeks before the recent cryptocurrency market crash.