Has the downside been opened? The S&P 500 index fell below key support levels, hitting a new low since late November last year.

Against the backdrop of continued soaring international oil prices and heightened uncertainty in the Middle East, the US stock market came under pressure on Thursday, with the S&P 500 index falling below key technical support levels, sparking concerns about further downward movement in the market. At the close, the S&P 500 index fell by 0.27% to 6606.49 points, marking not only the lowest closing level since late November of last year, but also the first time since May 2025 that it has dropped below the 200-day moving average. This technical level is often seen as an important reference for determining the long-term trend of the market, and once breached, it is often interpreted as a potential bearish signal. Market analysts point out that although the index is only down about 5% from its historical high, the internal structure of the market has deteriorated significantly. Data shows that over 80% of the communication services, consumer discretionary, and technology sector stocks in the S&P 500 index are in a downward trend, with about 76% of the stocks in the financial sector showing weak performance. In addition, the ratio of advancing to declining stocks is clearly skewed towards the declining side, indicating that market breadth is shrinking. From a sentiment perspective, the put/call ratio in the options market continues to rise, reflecting an increase in investor risk aversion. Some analysts believe that this change may indicate that the market is gradually entering a phase of "surrender sell-off," where investors begin to concentrate on selling off risky assets. The core pressure facing the current market still comes from energy prices. With the ongoing escalation of conflict in the Middle East, Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil prices are holding at high levels, causing concerns that rising energy costs will push up inflation and drag down economic growth. This factor is becoming a key variable driving recent market trends. From a technical perspective, the space below 6600 points has already been opened up. Market participants are paying close attention to the key support level of 6500 points, and once breached, it could trigger a larger-scale panic sell-off. Based on the current trend, there is a risk of a "technical adjustment" for the S&P 500 index to decline by 10% from the historical high of 6978 points in January, and even further slip into a bear market territory with a 20% decline. However, some believe that large-cap tech stocks may still become a support force in the market at some point in the future. Similar to the rebound rally following the interest rate hike shock in 2022, tech leaders once again drove the market's recovery. But in the current environment, investor confidence remains low, and the market is overall in a state of low confidence, with trading more dependent on changes in macro variables.