Cobalt price continues to rise? Professional firm Darton predicts: export restrictions in the Congo will impact supply, global shortage will continue until 2030.

According to the trading company Darton Commodities, the global cobalt shortage is expected to continue until the end of this decade due to export restrictions in the Democratic Republic of Congo, the main producer country. Last year, cobalt metal shipments from the Congo (DRC) experienced a significant decline. The government of the country first banned exports in February last year, followed by the implementation of strict quotas starting in October. The Congo (DRC) usually accounts for over 70% of the global supply of this battery metal, and these measures are aimed at curbing oversupply and boosting prices. Data from Fastmarkets Ltd. show that since the implementation of the restrictions, the benchmark price of this material, also used in aerospace and defense industries, has risen by over 160%. The price of the main export product from Congo, cobalt hydroxide, has more than quadrupled. Darton stated in a report that this led to a supply gap of over 82,000 tons last year. The report stated that export restrictions "have caused a serious technical shortage in the cobalt market," and "while the surplus stock accumulated before the ban temporarily eased this shortage, these stocks are now facing structural consumption." Global refined cobalt production is expected to decrease by about one-fifth by 2025, the first decline in five years. Although Darton expects a smaller gap this year, they predict that the cobalt shortage will persist until 2030. "As the impact of the shortage of raw materials in the cobalt supply chain deepens, downstream markets are facing increasing price pressure," Darton said. The company added that revised market outlooks suggest that Congo may "choose to relax export quotas this year to reduce the risk of demand contraction and maximize profits in a high-priced and tight supply market environment." Although export bans have been replaced by quotas, exports have only recently resumed due to delays in the implementation of the new procedures. Darton expects China to receive the first batch of raw materials around May or June, with an increase in imports of mixed hydroxide precipitate (a cobalt-nickel-containing substance) from Indonesia. While Indonesia's MHP production has growth potential, Darton points out that this production method also faces growing risks, including interruptions in sulfur supply in Southeast Asian countries, ore supply issues, and environmental concerns. The report notes, "The export restrictions in the Democratic Republic of Congo highlight the fragility of the cobalt supply chain, prompting companies to increase investments in product diversification and material substitution. These developments may ultimately inhibit demand growth in certain end-user markets." The price of cobalt had already broken out of the unilateral decline shadow in 2025, with supply tension due to Congo's quota restrictions on exports leading to a significant increase in prices by the end of the year, rising over 110% for the whole year last year.