Skyrocketing oil prices welcomed supply easing! Under the "Hormuz blockade", Russian oil comes to the rescue.

After the United States granted a temporary waiver and allowed other countries to purchase Russian energy goods that had already been loaded onto ships during transit at sea, about 30 oil tankers in Asian waters are now available for international buyers interested in Russian oil and other broader fuels. Analysts have stated that the significant increase in Middle East geopolitical conflicts has significantly raised Russia's marginal pricing power for oil and its ability to generate revenue, allowing the Russian government to potentially receive billions of dollars in additional fiscal income this month. However, the exempted Russian oil supply is not sufficient to truly push current international oil prices into a sustained downward trajectory. According to vessel tracking data compiled by agencies, these ships contain at least approximately 19 million barrels of Russian crude oil and about 310,000 tons of refined products. Refined products are mainly focused on naphtha - mainly used for plastic manufacturing, as well as some diesel refined products; since Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, the prices of these two types of products have surged significantly along with the international benchmark oil price, Brent crude oil. As news of Russian oil re-entering the market continued to impact international oil prices, the upward trend in oil prices eased significantly on Friday. As of the time of writing, Brent crude oil futures prices rose by less than 1% on Friday, hovering around $100 per barrel, but the weekly increase was still close to 9%, with Brent crude oil surging by as much as 50% since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, reaching a high of $119.50 per barrel on March 9, 2026 (Monday). Goldman Sachs' latest forecast report shows that if the Strait of Hormuz is blocked for 60 days, the average oil price for March and April could reach as high as $145 per barrel, and it may still remain around $95 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026, a historical high. Among them, oil is carried by 25 large vessels, with the oil types on the ships including Sokol crude oil parked near Chinese waters. There are also some large oil tankers in the Arabian Sea, mainly carrying medium sulfur Urals blend crude oil. The above image shows a large oil tanker loading Russian crude oil in the eastern waters of Russia, according to the latest compilation by agencies. It is understood that among the 25 Russian crude oil tankers with undisclosed final destinations, nearly one-third carry lighter Sokol crude oil. Sensitivity data show that signals emitted by these ships indicate they are "awaiting orders" - this also means that they do not have a clear destination yet, or preliminarily show they are heading to Singapore or Malaysia; large oil tankers often wait there (in Singapore or Malaysian ports) because these barrels of crude oil will undergo large-scale sales locally. Earning tens of millions of dollars a day! Is Russia the biggest winner in this Middle East war? It is reported that the U.S. Treasury Department has granted a one-month temporary waiver, allowing the import of Russian oil resources that were already loaded onto ships by Thursday, expanding the scope of a similar arrangement previously; under that arrangement, Indian refiners had previously purchased sanctioned Russian crude oil in bulk. At a time when the U.S. is relaxing sanctions on Russian energy resources, hundreds of large ships carrying crude oil, diesel, aviation fuel, and other petroleum products are currently stranded following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. "The U.S. decision aims to buy time for oil-buying countries and refiners to cope with the impact of heightened oil prices due to disruptions in Middle East oil supplies," said Muyu Xu, Senior Crude Analyst at Kpler Ltd. "Countries will buy all the Russian oil they can find - for all countries, the top priority is energy security." Like India, China has been one of the few major buyers of Russian crude oil and petroleum products for a long time - these Russian oil products have been sold at a discount following U.S. sanctions aimed at limiting Moscow's access to funds for the long-standing war with Ukraine. Other major markets, including Japan and South Korea, have avoided buying Russian oil. However, with the U.S. government easing sanctions on Russian oil amid pressure from a new round of geopolitical conflicts causing oil prices to surge, it has significantly increased Russia's marginal pricing power for oil and its ability to generate revenue. As the flow of Persian Gulf oil is restricted following the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, global buyers are snatching up "alternative barrels that can still be delivered stably." As a result, Russian crude oil, which was previously a discount substitute, has quickly become a scarce and available resource. Russia is not only benefiting from the rise in oil prices but is also regaining bargaining power in the Asian, especially Indian, market against the backdrop of disruption in Middle Eastern supply chains. According to calculations by multiple Western media outlets based on industry data and analyst assessments, the Russian government could potentially receive an additional $3.3 billion to $4.9 billion in revenue by the end of March. This calculation is based on the assumption that the average price of Russian Urals crude oil this month is around $70 to $80 per barrel, rather than maintaining the level of around $52 per barrel that it averaged in the previous two months. Daily budget increments could reach $110 million to $160 million, which is enough to significantly relieve the budget deficit pressure that had previously formed due to weak oil prices and export pressure. In other words, the Middle East conflict has temporarily restored Russia's cash flow, tax revenue, and fiscal safety net, but this improvement heavily relies on the continuation of external geopolitical conflicts rather than improvements in Russia's own economic structure. If the Middle East geopolitical crisis escalates, Russia may rise from being a "sanctioned marginal energy supplier" to a key beneficiary in the global energy rebalance, but this dividend is still constrained by the sustainability of U.S. sanction easing, the scale of production constraints faced by Gulf oil-producing countries due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and the duration of the war. Russian oil is more like a key variable that keeps oil prices at bay, and it is not enough to push oil prices back into a definitive downward trajectory. If the U.S. further relaxes sanctions on Russian oil and Russian oil can re-enter the market on a larger scale and more sustainably, it will undoubtedly be a driving force for a sustained downward trend in international oil prices in the commodities trading direction. However, at the present time, Russian oil is more like a variable that keeps oil prices up rather than a decisive force that can single-handedly pull oil prices back into a clear downward trajectory. After all, the U.S. has just announced temporary and narrow waivers - General License 134 issued by OFAC on March 12 only allows for the sale and delivery of Russian crude oil and refined products that were already loaded onto ships by March 12, with the measure only lasting until April 11; according to sources, this arrangement releases a batch of already-sea-loaded Russian oil, with approximately 19 million barrels of crude oil and 310,000 tons of refined products on about 30 ships in Asian waters. In other words, the latest relaxation of U.S. sanctions on Russian oil is more like "releasing stored inventory and easing acute shortages in the short term," rather than a comprehensive restructuring of the global supply system. Some analysts have expressed that Russia does have some idle production capacity and the ability to expand market share as the Gulf supply is restricted, but whether it can translate short-term windfall profits into medium-term strategic gains depends on whether the external sanction exemption policy environment continues to provide opportunities. However, from the perspective of trading in the short-term commodity market, more Russian oil flowing back will definitely be a bearish factor for oil prices, as it will increase the availability of spot products for energy-demanding major countries in Asia like China and India, compressing speculative bidding for Middle East alternative oil resources in some regions and, psychologically, telling financial market traders that the Trump administration is putting "suppressing oil prices" at a higher priority. The Middle East war is causing the "largest oil supply disruption in history," with global supply expected to be reduced by 8 million barrels per day in March, and the crude flow affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz exceeds 20 million barrels per day, accounting for about 20% of global consumption. In the face of this volume, whether it is the release of 172 million barrels from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the coordinated release of a record 400 million barrels of strategic petroleum reserves by the IEA, or the Russian oil waiver, analysts generally believe that they can only "slow down or temporarily restrain the rise" and cannot address the core contradictions of supply shock. In other words, as long as the issue of the Strait of Hormuz closure remains unresolved, the greater probability of Russian oil flowback will only transform extreme upward movements from "uncontrolled spikes" to "high-level fluctuations" rather than directly pull the oil market back into a bearish downward trend. A new research report from Deutsche Bank points out that, for international oil prices, "nothing else matters except the reopening of the strait" - that is, when the Strait of Hormuz can safely reopen is the only decisive variable in the current price trend of oil. The Deutsche Bank analyst team stated that until the issue of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is clarified, none of the policy tools such as G-7 strategic oil reserves (SPR) release, Western countries' phased exemption of Russian crude oil, or price caps can fundamentally reverse the trend of oil prices.