Zhongtai: Increase in the rate of chain branding in the catering industry favors the expansion of leading companies' market share.

Zhongtai released a research report stating that, affected by the macroeconomic environment, coupled with continuous changes in market demand, further adjustments in market structure, and a rapid reshaping of the catering industry, there is a potential for the increase in the chainization rate of catering brands after stabilizing and rebounding in Q4 of 25. This is beneficial for the expansion of market share for leading companies. Recommendations include: 1) Fast food: leading in store size and number, complete supply chain system, excellent research and development innovation capabilities, and various store models for western-style fast food; 2) Hotpot supply chain; 3) Convenient food/semi-finished prefabricated ingredients. Zhongtai's main points are as follows: Entering a new cycle of improving quality and efficiency, category performance differentiation After nearly three years of adjustment, the catering industry has entered a new cycle of "intensive cultivation + stock integration + diversified risk resistance". Since October 2025, the year-on-year growth rate of social retail catering revenue has been consistently higher than social retail growth rate. In 2026, benefiting from the longest Spring Festival holiday and the recovery of consumption scenes, the catering industry has shown a clear warming trend, with overall fundamentals improving marginally. From a demand perspective, consumers tend to concentrate on high-frequency, strong experiential, and strong social categories, with categories such as hotpot, barbecue, and Western-style fast food showing higher growth rates than the industry average. Policy support strengthens, attention should be paid to the value of sinking markets On the policy front, the review of the continuous strengthening of policy services oriented towards consumption over the past three years, the 2026 "Government Work Report" also explicitly proposes to implement designated plans to increase the income of urban and rural residents, activate offline consumption, stimulate consumption vitality in sinking markets, etc. The bank believes that the catering industry is expected to be driven by policy stimuli, and the sinking of top chain enterprises may lead to an increase in market share. Risk warning: Weak consumer demand, significant increase in raw material costs, new product turnover below expectations, delayed updating of research report information, third-party data distortion, and market size estimation deviation.