Preview of US Stock Market | The three major stock index futures all fell, and oil tankers in the Persian Gulf were attacked one after another.

1. Before the US stock market on Thursday, the futures of the three major US stock indexes all fell. As of the drafting time, Dow Jones futures fell by 0.86%, S&P 500 index futures fell by 0.66%, and Nasdaq futures fell by 0.65%. 2. As of the drafting time, the Germany DAX index fell by 0.15%, the UK FTSE 100 index fell by 0.38%, the France CAC40 index fell by 0.57%, and the Europe Stoxx 50 index fell by 0.83%. 3. As of the drafting time, WTI crude oil rose by 6.85% to $93.23 per barrel. Brent crude oil rose by 7.00% to $98.42 per barrel. Market News US initial jobless claims fall slightly, indicating moderate layoffs. Last week's initial jobless claims in the US fell, showing that business layoffs remain limited. The US Department of Labor reported on Thursday that for the week ending March 7th, initial jobless claims were 213,000, lower than the previous week's 214,000 and below the market expectation of 215,000. The number of continuing jobless claims for the week ending February 28th dropped to 1.85 million, down from the previous week's 1.87 million. The slightly positive initial jobless claims data indicates that businesses are more inclined to retain employees rather than conduct large-scale layoffs. Conflicts in the Middle East trigger disruptions in global shipping. Iran has launched a new round of attacks targeting shipping in the Persian Gulf, causing oil prices to briefly exceed $100 per barrel and intensifying what the International Energy Agency has called the "largest oil market disruption in history." Attacks on two ships near the Iraqi coast have led to the suspension of operations at the country's oil terminal, which could make global ship owners less willing to consider crossing the critical Strait of Hormuz. The longer the conflict continues, the greater the impact on the energy market. Fuel prices have already soared, with shortages in some parts of the world. Saudi Arabia and other oil-producing countries in the Middle East have been forced to cut oil production in recent days and are competing to implement alternative solutions to export oil through routes outside the Strait of Hormuz. IEA sounds highest alert: Middle East conflict causing largest oil market chaos in history, global daily supply reduced by 8 million barrels this month. The International Energy Agency (IEA) stated that the conflict in the Middle East is causing unprecedented turmoil in the oil market, affecting approximately 7.5% of global oil supply, with a more significant impact on the export side. In its monthly report released on Thursday, the IEA pointed out that the conflict in the Middle East is causing the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. A day earlier, the member countries of the agency had unanimously released 400 million barrels of emergency oil reserves in an unprecedented move to stabilize the market. Following the US and Israel's attacks on Iran on February 28th, international oil prices surged, and oil tankers stopped passing through the key waterway of the Strait of Hormuz. The IEA estimates that about 20 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum products are transported through the strait daily, with current traffic reduced by more than 90%. Seeking to stabilize oil prices! Trump team holds talks with Russian representatives, focuses on global energy crisis and potential lifting of Russia oil sanctions. Dmitry Peskov, special representative of the Russian president, stated that he had held talks with US officials in Florida, focusing on the global energy market crisis. Peskov wrote on Thursday: "Many countries, especially the United States, are beginning to realize more deeply the key and systemic role that Russian oil and gas play in maintaining global economic stability, and also recognize the ineffectiveness and destructive nature of sanctions against Russia." US special envoy Kurt Volker confirmed that he had met with Peskov in Florida. Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in-law, and White House senior advisor Avi Gruenbaum also participated in the talks with the Russian delegation. Peskov revealed that the two sides also discussed "several prospective projects that could promote the recovery of Russian-American relations." Middle East conflicts trigger aviation industry black swans: global capacity evaporates by 10%, Asia-Europe route ticket prices soar by 80%. As the escalating war with Iran disrupts the global tourism industry, the impact on the Asia-Europe route is particularly severe, leading to a sharp increase in ticket prices, resulting in record-high prices for passengers traveling around the Easter peak. Since the conflict began on February 28th, more than 46,000 flights have been canceled in the region. This crisis has wiped out up to 10% of global aviation capacity earlier this month, marking the largest impact on the aviation industry since the COVID-19 pandemic. The sharp drop in capacity due to the closure of airports in the Gulf region has caused prices to skyrocket on some key routes. According to an analysis of Google Flights data as of March 12th, the price of a round-trip economy class ticket from Sydney to London from April 3rd to 10th has increased by over 80% in the past two weeks, while the price of a business class ticket on the same route has increased by about 40%. Compared to the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic storm! This indicator suggests that emerging market currencies may face short-term turmoil. A key option pricing indicator shows that as tensions in the Middle East escalate, traders are preparing for further weakening of emerging market currencies in the next month. The emerging market currency index tracked by JPMorgan has seen a significant increase in the 1-month risk reversal indicator (used to measure the cost of downside protection relative to upside profit in derivatives). The market is increasingly concerned that the prolonged conflict will continue to push up oil prices. The indicator is now above the 1-year contract, with the short-term option protection cost higher than the long-term cost, a highly unusual phenomenon. The depth of this inversion has led to a 2020 level of the spread between the 1-month and 1-year risk reversal (i.e., the difference between the short-term and long-term downside protection costs). Individual Stock News Li Auto, Inc. Sponsored ADR Class A (LI.US) reported a net profit of 1.1 billion yuan for the fiscal year 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 85.8%. Li Auto, Inc. Sponsored ADR Class A reported vehicle sales revenue of 27.3 billion yuan (RMB) in the fourth quarter, a decrease of 36.1% from the fourth quarter of 2024 and an increase of 5.4% from the third quarter of 2025. Total revenue was 28.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 35.0% from the fourth quarter of 2024 and an increase of 5.2% from the third quarter of 2025. Net profit was 20.2 million yuan, compared to a net profit of 3.5 billion yuan in the fourth quarter of 2024 and a net loss of 624.4 million yuan in the third quarter of 2025. EHang Holdings Ltd. Sponsored ADR Class A (EH.US) achieved record total revenue of 509.5 million yuan for the fiscal year 2025. EHang Holdings Ltd. Sponsored ADR Class A reported total revenue of 509.5 million yuan, an increase of 11.7% year-on-year, setting a new revenue record; net loss was 231 million yuan, compared to a net loss of 23 million yuan in the same period last year. In terms of specific business, the number of electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft sales and deliveries reached 221 units, a historic high, including 215 EH216 series and 6 VT35 units. Futu Holdings Ltd. (FUTU.US) reported a 45.3% year-on-year increase in revenue for Q4, and a 101.9% increase in net profit for the full year. In the fourth quarter of 2025, Futu's total revenue was HK$6.438 billion (approximately US$827 million), an increase of 45.3% year-on-year; under non-GAAP, net profit was HK$3.456 billion (approximately US$444 million), an increase of 77.0% year-on-year. Revenue contributions were as follows: trading commission and fees revenue was HK$2.770 billion, interest revenue was HK$3.038 billion, and other revenue (including wealth management, enterprise services, etc.) was HK$0.630 billion. For the full year 2025, Futu's total revenue reached HK$22.847 billion (approximately US$2.935 billion), an increase of 68.1% year-on-year; non-GAAP net profit was HK$11.645 billion (approximately US$1.496 billion), an increase of 101.9% year-on-year. "Lobster Fever" sweeps the globe as Huang Renxun explodes the scene with an open-source model! NVIDIA Corporation's full-stack ambition propels the "AI bull market narrative." With the launch of Claude Cowork by Anthropic, and the popularity of autonomous task-performing AI agents like OpenClaw (referred to as "lobsters"), "AI chip superpower" NVIDIA Corporation is seizing the wave of AI agent super giants. The company has launched its open-source large model "Nemotron 3 Super" specifically designed to run extremely complex agent-based AI systems in a scalable manner. In terms of benchmark testing on Pinchbench, Nemotron 3 Super is leaps ahead, firmly holding the top position in open-source. With an 85.6% success rate in OpenClaw tasks, its performance is on par with the Claude Opus 4.6 and GPT-5.4 closed-source models. Another giant stumbles in electric vehicles! Honda (HMC.US) announces a reassessment of its electrification roadmap, recording a $15.7 billion loss for strategic restructuring. Honda Motor Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR recently announced that, due to a restructuring of its electric vehicle development strategy, the company expects to incur a hefty expense of up to 2.5 trillion yen (approximately $15.7 billion), making it another well-known carmaker to face impact amid the global setbacks in electric vehicle transformation. The Japanese automaker disclosed on Thursday that it will cancel the development and launch plans for three electric vehicle models originally planned for the North American market. For the current fiscal year ending in March next year, the company expects to report a loss of 270 billion to 570 billion yen. This estimated scale puts Honda alongside two other car companies - Stellantis NV (STLA.US) which incurred over 22 billion euros (approximately $25 billion) in expenses for its strategic shift, and Ford Motor Company (F.US) dropping $19.5 billion due to business restructuring. Important Economic Data and Events Preview Next day at 04:30 Beijing time: US Federal Reserve balance sheet as of March 11. Next day at midnight Beijing time: The Federal Reserve releases its quarterly financial report, and Federal Reserve Governor Bowman participates in a discussion on "Basel III and banking capital requirements." To be determined: The European Union agency for oil and gas supply holds a meeting on the Middle East situation. Earnings Forecast Friday morning: Adobe (ADBE.US), Ulta Beauty (ULTA.US) Friday pre-market: RLX Technology, Inc. Sponsored ADR Class A (RLX.US)