Cut-off panic continues to spread! European gas prices rise following oil prices, Morgan Stanley urgently raises full-year expectations.

Due to the ongoing increase in shipping risks in the Middle East, the market has been preparing for continued supply disruptions for several months, with European natural gas prices rising in sync with oil prices. Data shows that European benchmark natural gas futures rose for the second consecutive day, with intraday gains reaching 7.7% at one point, recovering some of the lost ground earlier this week. As of the time of writing, near-month futures in the Netherlands rose by 3.97%, to 51.975 euros per megawatt-hour. Currently, the tense situation in the global energy market is further evident: personnel have been evacuated from Oman's main oil export terminal, and two oil tankers in Iraqi waters have been attacked. In terms of liquefied natural gas (LNG), with market supply tightening, Asian buyers are preparing to increase their purchases over the next two months. Morgan Stanley has raised its price expectations for European natural gas for the remainder of the year. The bank notes that Europe will need to import large amounts of LNG this summer to replenish depleted fuel stocks. Assuming Qatar's LNG production will be shut down for at least a month, this will completely eliminate the expected oversupply in the global fuel market for 2026. Since last week, conflicts in the Middle East have led to the shutdown of the world's largest LNG export facility - Qatar's Ras Laffan - and disruptions in key shipping lanes in the Hormuz Strait. This has cut global LNG supply by approximately 20%, driving up gas prices in Asia and Europe, and sparking concerns about inflationary pressure and economic chain reactions. US President Trump said on Wednesday that a large-scale emergency release of oil reserves approved by the International Energy Agency would ease energy price pressures, and the US would "complete the mission" in its actions against Iran. However, this statement did not effectively calm the market. Shipping broker Fearnleys A/S stated in their weekly report, "The ongoing conflicts in the Middle East continue, with market volatility remaining a core theme. The direction of the LNG and LNG shipping markets in the coming days remains uncertain."