Concerns about the ceasefire stalemate outweigh the release plan, oil prices continue to rise, aiming for the $100 mark.

After another volatile trading day, oil prices continued to rise for the second day in a row. The escalating rhetoric of the Iran war has raised concerns among people about the prolongation of the conflict, surpassing the impact of the emergency release of oil reserves. After WTI crude oil prices rose nearly 5% on Wednesday, they rose 6.6% again today to $93.01 per barrel; Brent crude oil prices reached $98 per barrel. Iran has told regional mediators that any ceasefire agreement must require the US to guarantee that neither the US nor Israel will attack Iran in the future. Washington is unlikely to accept these conditions, further lowering expectations that the war will soon end. The US announced plans to release 172 million barrels of crude oil as part of coordinated efforts by countries around the world to cool tensions, resulting in a narrowing of price increases. The oil released this time will account for nearly half of the current US oil reserves. On Wednesday, coupled with US reserves, the International Energy Agency agreed to release an unprecedented 400 million barrels of oil reserves, far exceeding the reduction in oil production following the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war, causing oil prices to briefly fall. Nevertheless, the strategically important Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to shipping, and the market is closely watching for signs of normal trade resumption. On Wednesday, three ships were reportedly attacked by suspected flying objects in the narrow waterway and the Persian Gulf, highlighting the risks faced by shipping. With the Strait of Hormuz nearly closed, where one-fifth of global oil is usually transported, the major oil-producing countries in the Gulf have cut production, driving up the prices of energy products such as crude oil, natural gas, and diesel. The two-week-old war has raised concerns about an inflation crisis. Global daily oil consumption is slightly higher than 100 million barrels, and producers in the Gulf region have had to cut about 6% of production. Robert Rainey, commodities research head at West Pacific Bank, said, "With no signs of hostilities ending, blockade measures are increasing every day, and the strait is effectively closed. We still believe that Brent crude oil prices will enter a new, higher range of $90-110 next week." Speaking at an event in Kentucky on Wednesday, Trump reiterated his claim that the war is about to end, but also hinted that the US would stay until its objectives were achieved. "We don't want to withdraw prematurely, right?" he told the audience.