At a time when the four major oil-producing countries in the Gulf are working together to reduce production, a "secret shipping route between Iran and China" has been uncovered in the Hormuz Strait.

Despite the fact that the major Western shipping giants have mostly suspended ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, recent 24-hour global shipping monitoring data shows a slight increase in shipping activities related to Iran, specifically involving two super-large crude oil tankers that have been sanctioned by Western countries. According to the compiled ship tracking data, on Tuesday, a total of 8 commercial cargo ships passed through, and early on Wednesday, another 4 ships were identified, the majority of which are related to Iran or have commercial ties to the Chinese market. This slight increase in shipping activity in the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for 20%-30% of global energy transport, comes at a time of escalated hostilities in the region. On Wednesday, a large cargo ship, Mayuree Naree, was hit by an unknown projectile while crossing the Strait of Hormuz; another large bulk carrier, identified as having a "China Owner & Crew" signal but with undisclosed nationality, quickly turned around and left the strait after the incident, highlighting the increasing security risks in this shipping passage. On Tuesday, US President Donald Trump confirmed that 10 Iranian mine-laying ships had been destroyed. As shown in the image above, Iranian super-large crude oil tankers (VLCC) lead the fleet leaving the port, while some bulk carriers claiming to be associated with China quietly enter. This channel, known as the "global oil and LNG transport lifeline," remains highly dangerous, but not completely devoid of ships moving through, mainly those with specific backgrounds. Furthermore, despite extensive electronic warfare tactics making real-time monitoring of Hormuz shipping traffic difficult, as of the start of the US-Iran war on February 28, as many as 13.7 million barrels of Iranian crude oil have been transported through the strait. The Strait of Hormuz, a crucial energy transport chokepoint, remains under substantial military blockade, leading to further reductions in oil production in the Middle East region, exacerbating the chaos in the energy market. This round of production cuts is the most substantial global oil supply response since the outbreak of war between the US/Israel and Iran, causing the Gulf states to cut their combined oil production by about one-third. This, in turn, has resulted in a 6%-10% reduction in global supply. The new wave of geopolitical conflict in the region has now entered its second week, involving over a dozen Middle Eastern countries. With major oil export channels effectively closed, several countries in the Middle East are gradually filling up their oil reserves, forcing major energy-producing nations to significantly reduce production. These production cuts on Monday drove the international benchmark crude oil futures price, Brent, close to $120 per barrel. However, following President Trump's suggestion that the war may come to an end soon, oil prices saw a significant drop within 24 hours, experiencing a rare "big reversal." "I think the Middle East war has been very comprehensive and is almost over," said Trump, along with a highly uncertain expectation, causing crude oil prices that were heading towards $120 to crash back down to $85. Behind this 24-hour rollercoaster of oil prices is the deep-seated anxiety of the Trump administration regarding high oil prices impacting inflation and electoral prospects, as well as the complex energy market dynamics of blocked Strait of Hormuz, reduced Middle Eastern production, and disrupted global supply chains. Saudi Arabia has significantly reduced its daily oil production by 2-2.5 million barrels, the UAE has cut production by 500,000-800,000 barrels, Kuwait has cut by around 500,000 barrels, and Iraq by around 2.9 million barrels. Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser stated during an earnings conference call: "While we have faced disruptions before, this is undoubtedly the biggest crisis the oil and gas industry in the region has faced to date." Nasser added, "This interruption has not only caused serious ripple effects in shipping and insurance industries, but also had a huge domino effect on aviation, agriculture, automotive, and other sectors. The longer the interruption lasts, the more catastrophic the impact on the world oil market and the more severe the impact on the global economy." In terms of proportion, Iraq has seen the deepest reduction in oil production. According to compiled data, the actual reduction levels in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait equate to about 20%-25% of their February production levels. Recent shipping flow data shows that the Strait of Hormuz has not returned to normal navigation. Major Western shipping remains largely on hold, but some ships related to Iran or with Chinese commercial backgrounds continue to pass through the strait in a limited capacity in high-risk environments. Extensive electronic warfare tactics, including signal deception and signal interference, have made real-time monitoring of shipping traffic increasingly difficult for major open-source monitoring institutions. Because some ships choose to navigate in high-risk areas with their AIS responders turned off, data accuracy is expected to lag, often resulting in historical passage numbers being subsequently revised upwards. Earlier on Wednesday, two sanctioned Iranian super-large crude oil tankers were found sailing out of the Persian Gulf towards Asia, with a high probability of their final destination being China. Their draft depth indicates that both of these super tankers are fully loaded. According to statistics from Tankertrackers.com, since the outbreak of the war on February 28, as many as 13.7 million barrels of Iranian crude oil have been successfully transported through the strait. On Tuesday, a fleet consisting of 5 bulk carriers, 1 container ship, and 1 large LPG carrier - all related to Iran or Chinese commercial transport - were detected rapidly leaving the region. As shown in the image above, the latest monitoring data of ships sailing out of the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz shows that they are generally related to Iran or China. On Tuesday, a container ship related to Iran entered the Persian Gulf, and on Wednesday, another one entered. Additionally, on Wednesday, a bulk carrier signaling "China Owner All Chinese" entered the Gulf. The image above shows the ships sailing into the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz. While occasional ships still manage to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, most of the industry's capacity remains stranded on both sides of the strait until maritime safety is restored. Following Iran's retaliatory strikes against the US and Israel, and several commercial ships being hit by missiles, although Iran did not officially announce a blockade, traffic through the waterway has effectively come to a standstill. Missile and drone activities continue to pose serious risks to all nearby ships. It's worth noting that large transport ships carrying oil and gas can navigate without transmitting AIS signals before reaching far from the Strait of Hormuz. Therefore, automatic position identification signals are mainly assembled in areas covering the Gulf of Oman, the Arabian Sea, and the Red Sea to identify ships that might have already entered or left the Persian Gulf. Once potential passing ships are identified, their signal history is checked to determine if the journey seems genuine or if it is a result of signal deception - in this case, electronic interference may falsify the apparent position of the ship. If a ship's responder has not been reactivated, some passage situations may not be detected. Oil tankers related to Iran often depart from the Persian Gulf without broadcasting AIS signals and only resume signaling when they reach the Strait of Malacca about 10 days after passing Fujairah. Other ships may also be employing similar strategies, leading them to not appear on tracking screens of open-source institutions for many days. Therefore, the ship tracking data we currently see can only be regarded as estimates in which monitoring institutions are trying to get as close to the truth as possible, and not as a 100% complete, real-time, error-free snapshot. This is because many ships near Hormuz may turn off their AIS or be subject to electronic interference, causing monitoring institutions to broaden their observations to the Gulf of Oman, the Arabian Sea, and the Red Sea to infer which ships may have entered or left the Persian Gulf. Once potential passages are identified, the entire signal history is reviewed to determine if the route is genuine or fabricated due to "signal deception." Real passage volumes are likely higher than the numbers seen on the screens, as some ships take a long time to reactivate their AIS or even Iranian-related oil tankers often do not broadcast signals until after passing Fujairah and reaching the vicinity of the Strait of Malacca about 10 days later. Additionally, the strait has now entered a "semi-black box state": ship owners, in a bid to avoid sanctions or reduce the risk of being targeted, may voluntarily remain "invisible," while electronic warfare in the war creates false signals.