Trump calls for military action against Iran to end quickly, financial markets shaken, oil prices plummet.
President Trump stated on Monday that the military actions against Iran by the United States may soon come to an end.
President Trump said on Monday that the U.S. military actions against Iran could end soon, relieving concerns about prolonged conflict in the market and pushing U.S. stocks to rebound after intense fluctuations, while international oil prices also significantly fell from their intra-day highs.
According to reports, Trump stated in an interview that the current war "is basically over." He claimed that Iran's military capabilities have been severely weakened, "they have no navy, no communication system, and no air force power," and he also said that Iran's missile and drone capabilities have been significantly damaged. Trump also stated that the current progress of the war is "far, far faster" than his previous estimate of four to five weeks.
Meanwhile, the Kremlin stated that Trump also spoke with Russian President Putin on the phone that day to discuss the Iran conflict. The Russian side stated that Putin proposed some suggestions in the call to quickly end the war.
Trump's latest statement quickly affected the financial markets. Prior to concerns about energy supply disruptions due to escalation in the Middle East, international oil prices soared during early trading on Monday. Global benchmark Brent crude oil prices briefly touched $119.50 per barrel, the highest since the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict; the U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil also briefly rose to around $119 per barrel.
With expectations rising in the market for a rapid end to the conflict, oil prices subsequently significantly fell. Brent crude oil eventually closed at $98.96 per barrel, falling further below $90 after-hours; WTI crude oil closed at $94.77 per barrel, subsequently dropping towards $85.
The U.S. stock market also saw a dramatic turnaround. Due to the surge in oil prices and increased uncertainty about the war, the three major stock indexes initially dropped significantly during early trading on Monday. But after Trump's statement that the war could end soon, market sentiment quickly improved, and the indexes turned higher.
By the close of trading, the S&P 500 index rose by 0.83%, the Nasdaq rose by 1.38%, and the Dow rose by 0.5%.
The recent sharp fluctuations in financial markets have been mainly driven by concerns about energy supply disruptions. The market is particularly concerned about the security of the Strait of Hormuz, located along the Iranian coast, which is one of the most important energy shipping lanes globally, typically accounting for about one-fifth of global oil sea trade. Iran had previously threatened action against oil tankers passing through the strait.
Energy analysts warn that if the Strait of Hormuz is closed for several weeks, oil prices could soar to $150 per barrel or even higher. Continued high oil prices will further raise inflationary pressures, increase operating costs for businesses, and squeeze household spending, exacerbating the risk of global economy falling into "stagflation."
Meanwhile, the U.S. bond market has also been influenced by various factors. At the start of trading on Monday, due to rising inflation concerns, the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond briefly rose above 4.20%, but as oil prices fell and concerns about economic slowdown increased, the yield subsequently fell to around 4.10%.
Analysts point out that the U.S. stock market has historically been able to recover quickly from the impact of military conflicts, as long as oil prices do not remain at extremely high levels for an extended period of time. Some institutional investors believe that the recent market downturn may actually provide an opportunity for investors to buy low.
However, market participants also warn that with significant uncertainty still present in the Middle East situation, financial markets may continue to experience sharp fluctuations in the coming days.
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