Midland Realty: The average number of new private residential units completed in Hong Kong is expected to fall to 15,500 in 2026-27.

Yang Mingyi, Senior Joint Director of the Research Department of Central Real Estate, pointed out that after the peak in the Hong Kong property market in 2021, the Hong Kong government has slowed down the pace of land sales, gradually reducing supply. The number of new units completed is expected to average over 21,000 units in two years from 2024 to 2025, a decrease of more than 20%, to an estimated average of 15,500 units per year from 2026 to 2027. The decrease in completed units is mainly due to a significant reduction in supply in Kowloon. It is projected that there will be a total of 18,783 units in 69 completed projects in 2026, and 12,236 units in 69 completed projects in 2027. Interest rates have peaked and are now declining, the atmosphere in the Hong Kong property market is improving, prices are bottoming out and rising, and developers are actively selling properties, with over 20,000 new private residential units sold in 2025, easing the backlog of inventory. The speed of new property transactions is increasing, and the medium to long-term supply is gradually decreasing, leading to a balanced supply and demand situation in the Hong Kong property market in the future. The number of completed units in Kowloon in 2026 and 2027 is estimated to be 3,047 and 4,815, respectively, averaging less than 4,000 units per year, a decrease of over 60% compared to the average of about 10,000 units in the two years from 2024 to 2025. Despite several new projects in Hung Hom, the supply in Wong Tai Sin (including Kowloon City), Cheung Sha Wan, Ho Man Tin, and Kwun Tong has decreased, leading to a sharp drop in the overall number of completed units in Kowloon. The number of completed units in Wong Tai Sin (including Kowloon City) is expected to decrease from the peak in 2024 and 2025 of 6,417 and 3,408 units respectively, to 668 and 1,423 units in 2026 and 2027. The number of completed units in Hong Kong Island is gradually declining year by year, but it has remained above 2,000 units for three consecutive years, with 2,820 units in 2025, and an estimated 2,647 units in 2026 and 2,350 units in 2027. Due to several new projects in Aberdeen, there will be 825 units and 1,071 units in 2026 and 2027, respectively, the highest in Hong Kong Island. Supply is also expected to increase in North Point, Western District, Central, and Wan Chai. However, the number of completed units in Shau Kei Wan is expected to decrease by half from the previous two years in 2026 and 2027. The number of completed units in the New Territories in 2026 and 2027 is estimated to be 13,089 and 5,071, respectively, averaging about 9,000 units per year, similar to the average of the two years from 2024 to 2025. The number of completed units in the New Territories has been fluctuating for the past ten years since 2018. The number of completed units in 2026 has increased to over 10,000 units due to significant increases in the number of completed units in Sai Kung (including Tuen Mun), Tai Po, Northern District, and Sha Tin compared to the previous year.