Don't count on Trump to save the market anymore! Wall Street warns in unison: this time he can't control the situation.

As the US stock market gradually recovered from its deepest drop on Tuesday, a new expectation seems to emerge in the market - investors are betting that Trump will eventually find a way to control the shock waves caused by another crisis he personally initiated. However, Wall Street strategists are warning not to rely on the so-called "Trump put" in the face of the situation in Iran. Bob Elliott, Chief Investment Officer of New York investment firm Unlimited, said, "This reminds me of an old saying about war - once it starts, it has its own course. It may not be as easy to impact the market and respond to market pain as it was on 'Liberty Day' (the day Trump announced tariffs) when Trump had complete control over policy options." Military strikes by the US and Iran against Iran have plunged the Middle East into turmoil and could potentially bring new inflationary shocks to the US economy by raising oil prices. Currently, there is no definitive conclusion on when or how this conflict will end, which increases the risk of prolonged conflict and possible unforeseen consequences for the White House. This makes the conflict in Iran different from the trade war initiated by Trump, his comments on acquiring Greenland, and his attacks on the independence of the Federal Reserve - even though these have all made domestic and foreign investors uneasy. In previous situations, traders gradually formed an expectation: once the financial markets fell too sharply, Trump would back down. This strategy even gave rise to a term called "TACO trading", meaning "Trump always chickens out", and created a mentality of "buying on the dip" to drive the stock market rebound. This inertia may have softened the initial reaction of the US market - the decline in US stocks and bonds was much smaller compared to overseas markets. Over the past two trading days, US stocks opened sharply lower, but gradually recovered during trading hours. On Tuesday, the S&P 500 index initially dropped 2.5% in early trading but eventually closed down 0.9%. "Like every previous sell-off, after the initial drop, buyers enter at technical support levels, and traders driven by 'fear of missing out' (FOMO) push this initial rebound," said Steve Sosnick, Chief Strategist at Interactive Brokers. On Tuesday, Trump announced that the US would provide insurance protection and naval escort for tankers and other vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz to avoid conflicts that could lead to an energy crisis. However, the sharp rise in oil prices may exacerbate inflationary pressures in the US, and market doubts on whether the Federal Reserve will resume interest rate cuts have also arisen. In recent weeks, the stock market has been under pressure due to concerns about the impact of AI, signs of tension in some areas of the credit market, and slowing job growth. Ross Mayfield, investment strategist at Baird, believes that regardless of how quickly the conflict ends, the risk of extensive damage to oil infrastructure in the Middle East will extend the impact of the conflict on the market. The Trump administration has hinted that the bombing campaign could last for weeks, but has not made it clear how the conflict will end. Analysts believe that the market's reaction has not yet triggered significant concerns in Washington, as it did in April last year when the market collapsed, prompting Trump to temporarily suspend his tariff plan. Matt Gertken, Chief Geopolitical and US Political Strategist at BCA Research, believes that only when there is a "market-induced recession" risk, meaning a 10-15% decline in stocks, will the White House truly feel the pressure. "The current market volatility is far from making it difficult for him," said Gina Martin Adams, Chief Market Strategist at HB Wealth Management. She bluntly stated, "To be his problem, it has to be much more serious." John Briggs, head of US rates at French Foreign Trade Bank, agrees. He believes that only when bond yields rise to a level that "causes chaos and spreads to credit and equity markets" will it potentially prompt Trump to withdraw from the conflict. However, regardless of Trump's actions, the stock market may largely depend on how the conflict affects oil prices. Mike Wilson, Chief Investment Officer and US Equity Strategist at Morgan Stanley, pointed out that historical experience shows that as long as the year-on-year increase in crude oil prices does not exceed 75%, US stocks tend to rise during conflicts in the Middle East. Lori Calvasina, of the Capital Markets Division at Royal Bank of Canada, warns investors that though historical precedents show that buying stocks after geopolitical events that trigger market declines often leads to returns, caution should be maintained on this experience. She warned that the evidence supporting the stock market rebound may not always reflect the risks associated with broader conflicts. "The current conflict, along with the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022 and the experience of soaring inflation in the post-pandemic era, remind us that when analyzing the stock market, we must not overlook geopolitical events." Keith Buchanan of Globalt Investments believes that the risks posed by the conflict in Iran to the US are similar to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which previously raised energy prices, worsened inflation, and led to a stock market decline in 2022 due to Fed rate hikes. More importantly, he points out that Trump cannot "control the situation's switch". "There are other influential parties involved," Buchanan said, "this conflict is more complex and far-reaching than any previous situation."