Dongxing: Geopolitical risks significantly drive up international oil prices, with February US crude oil exports and imports increasing compared to the previous month.

Dongxing released a research report stating that the international oil prices surged at the opening due to the significant escalation of the US-Iran military conflict. In February, the price of crude oil rose significantly, and with further escalation of the conflict, if the Strait of Hormuz is interrupted for a long period, oil prices may continue to rise. On the other hand, OPEC+ issued a statement, deciding to increase production by 206,000 barrels per day in April 2026. If the alliance releases the increment faster and shipping is not disrupted, the increase may be limited; otherwise, geopolitical risk premiums will continue to dominate short-term fluctuations. Additionally, in February, the import and export of US crude oil increased compared to the previous month. If the conflict persists for a long time, to compensate for a possible supply gap in the Middle East region, Asian oil-importing countries may have to increase their imports of Russian and West African oil. The main points of Dongxing are as follows: International oil prices surged at the opening due to the significant promotion of the US-Iran military conflict On February 28, 2026 local time, the situation in Iran entered a stage of military conflict outbreak. As of 10:00 on March 2, Beijing time, several shipping giants announced suspending passage through the strait, which carries 1/5 of global oil and gas transport and the conflict may spread throughout the entire Middle East. As of March 2, 2026, WTI opened at $75.00 per barrel, up $7.98 per barrel from the previous closing price of $67.02 per barrel, an increase of 11.9%, reaching a high of $75.33 per barrel; Brent opened at $81.57 per barrel, up $8.7 per barrel from the previous closing price of $72.87 per barrel, an increase of 11.94%, reaching a high of $82.37 per barrel. Crude oil prices rose noticeably month-on-month As of February 27, 2026, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures was $72.48 per barrel, up by $1.77 per barrel from the previous month, an increase of 2.50%; WTI crude oil futures settlement price was $67.02 per barrel, up by $1.60 per barrel from the previous month, an increase of 2.45%. The spot price of Brent crude oil was $70.84 per barrel, up by $3.47 per barrel from the previous month, an increase of 5.15%; the spot price of WTI crude oil was $65.21 per barrel, up by $2.00 per barrel from the previous month, an increase of 3.16%. The spot price of ESPO crude oil was $57.31 per barrel, up by $5.51 per barrel from the previous month, an increase of 10.64%. In February, the spot price of OPEC crude oil was $67.79 per barrel, up by $5.47 per barrel from the previous month, an increase of 8.77%. The monthly average price of Chinese crude oil (Daqing) was $66.61 per barrel, up by $5.37 per barrel from the previous month, an increase of 8.76%. The monthly average price of Chinese crude oil (South China Sea) was $61.99 per barrel, up by $5.71 per barrel from the previous month, an increase of 10.15%. The monthly average price of Chinese crude oil (Shengli) was $65.44 per barrel, up by $5.78 per barrel from the previous month, an increase of 9.68%. The global financial markets experienced drastic fluctuations under the influence of geopolitical tensions, and with the further escalation of the conflict, if the Strait of Hormuz is interrupted for a long time, oil prices may continue to rise. OPEC+ announced production increase in April to stabilize global supply gap OPEC+ issued a statement, deciding to increase production by 206,000 barrels per day in April 2026. If the alliance releases the increment faster and shipping is not disrupted, the increase may be limited; otherwise, geopolitical risk premiums will continue to dominate short-term fluctuations. In the US, refinery capacity utilization rate has decreased; the supply of finished motor gasoline decreased month-on-month, while the supply of petroleum products increased month-on-month; the inventory of finished motor gasoline decreased month-on-month As of February 20, 2026, the average weekly refinery capacity utilization rate in the US was 88.6%, a decrease of 2.3 percentage points from the previous month. The weekly supply of finished motor gasoline in the US was 8,733 thousand barrels per day, a decrease of 24 thousand barrels per day from the previous month, a decrease of 0.25%. The inventory of finished motor gasoline in the US was 254,834 thousand barrels, a decrease of 2,379 thousand barrels from the previous month, a decrease of 0.92%. The supply of petroleum products in the US was 21,455 thousand barrels per day, an increase of 780 thousand barrels per day from the previous month, an increase of 3.77%. The import and export of US crude oil increased month-on-month In February 2026, the average import quantity of US crude oil was 6,371.33 thousand barrels per day, an increase of 166.13 thousand barrels per day from the previous month, an increase of 2.68%. The average export quantity was 4,255.60 thousand barrels per day, an increase of 77 thousand barrels per day from the previous month, an increase of 1.84%. If the conflict in Iran can be resolved in a short time, the impact on Asian oil imports may not be too significant; if the conflict lasts for a long time, Asian oil-importing countries may have to increase their imports of Russian and West African oil to compensate for the potential supply shortfall in the Middle East. Risk warning Geopolitical risks; significant fluctuations in energy prices; risks of demand falling short of expectations.