Hong Kong Stock Concept Tracking | International oil prices surge! Brent crude oil soars by 13%, institutions optimistic that prices may reach $100 per barrel (with concept stocks)

After the United States and Israel attacked Iran, international oil prices soared, with Brent crude opening on Monday jumping 13% to $82 per barrel. According to CCTV News, Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, was killed in the attack. The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced on the evening of the 28th that it would ban any ships from passing through the Strait of Hormuz. There are reports that with the halt of traffic of oil tankers and other vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, the strait has effectively been closed. In an article written on Saturday, analysts at Barclays Bank wrote, "The oil market may have to face the worst situation on Monday. Based on the current situation, we believe that the price of Brent crude oil could reach $100 per barrel. The potential impact on the oil market cannot be overstated." According to reports from Xinhua News Agency and others, on the afternoon of February 28th Beijing time, Israel launched a preemptive strike against Iran to eliminate the threat to Israel, with the operation code named "Roaring Lion". An Israeli government official said that Israel is preparing for a four-day intensive and powerful joint offensive. The US military also expects to carry out a multi-day operation against Iran. US President Trump said on March 1st local time that the military action against Iran may last about four weeks. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu made a speech, saying that in the coming days, Israel's strikes against Iran will intensify further. With the death of Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, the severity of the situation exceeded expectations, not only because the joint attack by the US and Israel on OPEC member Iran continuously affects the global market, but also because this may lead to a severe disruption in oil supply in the Middle East. Iran produces about 3.3 million barrels of oil per day, accounting for 3% of global production, making it the fourth largest oil-producing country in OPEC. However, due to its strategic geographic location, the country's influence on global energy supply far exceeds its production volume. Iran is located on one side of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about one-fifth of the world's oil is transported, mainly from key supply countries such as Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Real-time data from the International Oil Tanker Flow Monitoring System shows that the speed of oil tankers in the waters around the Strait of Hormuz has generally dropped to zero, indicating that shipping in the region has come to a standstill. According to media tracking data, although the strait is still open, some oil tankers have chosen to detour after the attack, causing congestion of ships on both sides of the strait entrance. Before this, the oil market had long underestimated the risk of interruptions in Middle East oil supply. Bob McNally, former White House energy advisor to US President George W. Bush and analyst at Rapidan Energy, said that traders underestimated the threat that Iran's retaliatory actions could pose to the market. McNally suggested that Iran may try to intimidate US President Trump by disrupting the commercial shipping security in the Strait of Hormuz, which could lead to oil prices soaring above $100 per barrel. He also stated that the market did not realize that Tehran has a significant number of naval mines and short-range missiles that could severely disrupt the traffic in the waterway. According to McNally, only a small portion of the crude oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz may be able to be diverted. Saudi Arabia has an oil pipeline that crosses the country from east to west, connecting the eastern region to the Red Sea coast. The UAE also has an oil pipeline that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz and ultimately reaches the Gulf of Oman. In a latest research report released on Saturday, analysts at Barclays Bank warned that the global oil market may face a pivotal moment on Monday, with market risk sentiment rapidly rising and the trend of international oil prices facing new uncertainty. The report pointed out that, under the influence of multiple factors such as tightening supply, rising geopolitical risks, and enhanced market speculative sentiment, the crude oil market is currently in a highly sensitive stage. Analysts said, "The oil market may have to face the worst situation on Monday. Given the current market environment, Barclays believes that there is a possibility that the price of Brent crude oil could rise to $100 per barrel." The analysts emphasized that once oil prices touch or surpass this important psychological threshold, its impact will extend far beyond the energy industry itself. "The potential impact on the oil market cannot be overstated." The report also noted that the current market focus is on the stability of oil supply, changes in inventory levels, and the policy trends of major oil-producing countries. If supply disruptions persist or demand expectations improve, the upward momentum of oil prices may further strengthen. At the same time, changes in financial market fund flows and speculative positions may also amplify short-term price volatility. Industry insiders believe that if Brent crude oil stabilizes above the $100 threshold, it may trigger a revaluation of the energy sector valuations and drive up prices of related commodities. Market participants generally expect the next few trading days to be an important window for judging the medium-term trend of oil prices. Investors are closely watching the trading performance after the market opens, as well as the upcoming inventory data and macroeconomic signals, to assess whether oil prices are entering a new upward cycle. Related concept stocks: China Petroleum (00857): Processing crude oil of 1,040.6 million barrels in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.4%; producing 6.688 million tons of ethylene, a year-on-year growth of 5.2%; and trading 29.59 million tons of chemical products, a year-on-year growth of 3.3%. The refining, petrochemical, and new materials division continued to optimize facility operations and product structure, advancing transformation and upgrading towards the high-end of the refining and chemical industry chain, achieving an operating profit of RMB 16.24 billion, an increase of 6.28% year-on-year, of which: the refining business achieved an operating profit of RMB 14.453 billion, an increase of 22.68% year-on-year; the chemical business achieved an operating profit of RMB 1.787 billion, a decrease of 48.93% year-on-year, mainly due to the decline in prices of most chemical products, narrowing the margin for the chemical business. CNOOC (00883): The company's oil and gas production is rapidly increasing, with a CAGR of 8.0% for crude oil production and 10.5% for natural gas production from 2021 to 2024. The company's planned production growth rates for 2025-2027 are 5.9%, 2.6%, and 3.8% respectively, with production growth expected to stabilize. In 2024, the company's oil and gas equivalent reserves are 7.3 billion barrels of oil equivalent, and the value of reserves is still undervalued. The main production cost of the company in the first three quarters of 2025 was $27.35 per barrel, a decrease of 2.8% year-on-year, which is far lower than Petrochina, China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation domestically, and lower than ExxonMobil, Chevron, and Shell internationally, showing international competitiveness. China Oilfield Services (02883): The company's drilling platform utilization rate reached 93.4% in the first half of 2025, an increase of 8 percentage points year-on-year, and the total asset turnover rate reached 0.6 times, an increase of 3% year-on-year; the company's equipment leasing rate reached a historical high, with leasing costs down by 5%. With the parent company, CNOOC, entering a new phase of capital expenditure in the "13th Five-Year Plan", driven by stable demand for production maintenance, the company is expected to bring steady workload to its domestic business, and the utilization rate of the company's drilling platforms may continue to maintain a high level. The company is guiding that the coverage rate of its system fees in 2026 will gradually increase from 50% to 80%, with a target for the unit cost of total workload to decrease by 2-5% year-on-year, and the cost-to-revenue ratio to increase by 0.2-0.5 percentage points year-on-year.