Caitong: Maintains "Buy" rating on TRIP.COM-S (09961) Performance exceeds expectations and internationalization drive continues.

Caitong released a research report stating that it maintains a "buy" rating on TRIP.COM-S (09961). As a leading company in the domestic OTA industry, the company has deep competitive barriers, with inbound and international business becoming the core driver of long-term performance growth. The brokerage firm predicts that the company's revenue for 2026-2028 will be 71.7/81.9/91.8 billion yuan respectively, with non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders reaching 19.1/21.9/24.8 billion yuan. Caitong's main points are as follows: Key Points and Events On February 26, 2025, the company announced its performance report, with a net operating income of 15.4 billion yuan in 4Q2025 (YoY + 21%), exceeding expectations by 3.6%; adjusted EBITDA of 3.4 billion yuan (YoY + 15%), adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.5 billion yuan (YoY + 15%), exceeding expectations by 7.7%. Business Segment Performance In 4Q2025, accommodation booking revenue reached 6.3 billion yuan (YoY + 21%), driven by strong demand for outbound and international hotel bookings. Transportation ticket revenue was 5.4 billion yuan (YoY + 12%), with significant growth in international flight bookings. Travel and vacation revenue was 1.1 billion yuan (YoY + 21%), benefiting from international service expansion. Business travel management revenue was 800 million yuan (YoY + 15%), primarily due to growth in corporate customers. The international OTA platform saw a year-on-year booking volume increase of approximately 60% in 2025, with Trip.com as the core engine driving the increase in international revenue, which increased to 18% in 4Q2025. The company's internationalization strategy continues to deepen, creating opportunities for long-term growth. AI Agent - Not a "transaction substitute", but a reshaper of traffic entry and decision-making chains In the OTA scenario with strong service/fulfillment and strong supply chain capabilities, the company's moat lies in transaction matching efficiency, supply chain integration, and fulfillment guarantee. Ctrip considers AI traffic entry as a new distribution channel, efficiently importing external AI traffic through deeper Agent-to-Agent transaction connections. At the same time, by using self-developed vertical Agents, based on years of accumulation of real booking data, preferences, and high-quality evaluations, the company continuously strengthens its advantages in real-time quoting, secure payment, and global 7x24 service in the "last mile" segment, enhancing conversion efficiency and service premium capabilities in the medium to long term. Risk Factors Risks include lower-than-expected service consumption, intensified competition in domestic and overseas markets, subpar effects of AI+ cultural tourism applications, and unexpected regulatory investigation results.