Behind the evaporation of trillions of dollars in market value, the bullish logic of Bitcoin is quietly emerging.

Since hitting its high point in October last year, the price of Bitcoin has been almost halved. No matter from which angle you look at it, this round of selling off is the most brutal since the FTX collapse. However, in the midst of this catastrophe, there is an intriguing puzzle hidden: the institutionalized system built around Bitcoin during the bull market has not collapsed along with the price. Bitcoin ETF funds are roughly holding steady, and Wall Street has not exited. Although some strategic investors have chosen to exit, the convictions of long-term holders are unusually firm. The divergence between this price drop and market resilience has given rise to a contrarian logic hidden behind the selling spree. The bearish logic does not need to be reiterated. Even though there was a rebound on Wednesday, Bitcoin is still hovering below $70,000, far below last October's high of $126,000, with a market value evaporating by $1 trillion. Nearly 45% of Bitcoin holdings on the network are at a loss, and options traders are buying contracts to hedge against the risk of a further plunge. Confidence that institutional entry can cushion the drop has disappeared, with weeks of consecutive ETF fund outflows leading to a widely held belief that Bitcoin's mainstreaming process is failing. However, contrarian investors believe that these outflow data need to be interpreted in a larger context. Blockforce Capital's Brett Munster pointed out that since its launch in January 2024, the total net inflow of spot Bitcoin ETFs has reached tens of billions of dollars. The recent outflow accounts for only about 6% of the total amount. In a report, he wrote, "This pattern clearly shows that this group of investors is consolidating positions rather than panic exiting," and added that 17 out of the top 25 Bitcoin ETF holders increased their positions in the fourth quarter. On Wednesday, the market briefly showed positive signals: U.S. stocks inched higher, risk sentiment improved, and Bitcoin surged over 9% during the trading day, nearing the $70,000 mark. Whether this rebound is stabilization or will turn out to be short-lived as in previous rebounds remains the focus of market discussion. To answer this question, bulls are looking beyond ETF data to review what happened during the last significant Bitcoin price drop. In 2022, the industry's infrastructure first teetered, then completely collapsed. FTX, Celsius, BlockFi, and Three Arrows Capital all collapsed in quick succession, not only destroying capital but also crushing the custodial institutions, lending institutions, and exchanges on which the market relied for survival. Market confidence turned to ashes. This time, however, no major institutions have collapsed. Exchanges are operating normally, custodial institutions remain solvent, and banks are not retreating but are increasing their involvement. According to River, a Bitcoin financial services company, more than half of the major U.S. banks have launched or are developing cryptocurrency-related products. Bernstein's senior global digital asset analyst, Gautam Chhugani, said, "The current fluctuations in Bitcoin prices are just a crisis of confidence. Without institutional collapses, there will be no hidden time bomb detonation." He pointed out that the bearish logic for Bitcoin is at its weakest point in history and predicted that the token would reach $150,000 by 2026. Indeed, the skepticism about Wall Street logic is valid. Many projects being developed by traditional Financial Institutions, Inc. are more related to underlying blockchain technology rather than Bitcoin itself. J.P. Morgan's tokenized currency market fund operates on the Ethereum network. Stablecoin projects led by companies like Circle (CRCL.US) can thrive even if Bitcoin never recovers. Digital infrastructure development can progress independently of Bitcoin's price. But bulls believe that this view overlooks second-order effects. Every bank that opens a cryptocurrency trading desk, every broker that adds a Bitcoin trading button, and every financial advisor newly authorized to recommend ETFs are expanding the population able to buy Bitcoin with one click. When a bank tells thousands of financial advisors that they can now recommend cryptocurrency assets, it does not immediately drive up the price of Bitcoin. But it indicates that the available buying power in the market will be far greater than in any previous cycle when the market sentiment shifts again. Infrastructure may not care about the price, but it is far from a neutral gateway. In each past cycle of Bitcoin, the gateway mechanism has been the catalyst that has turned recovery into a rally. Fidelity Digital Assets, a subsidiary of Fidelity Investments, further deepens this structural argument. Publicly traded companies and spot ETFs currently hold nearly 12% of the circulating supply of Bitcoin. Despite cracks in the hoarding business model, the total holdings of listed companies have been growing almost every quarter since early 2020. The Fidelity research team believes that this has created a demand base that did not exist in past cycles: a supply pool held by entities with a long-term view, unwilling to sell in weakness. According to the latest 13F filings, university endowments like Harvard and Dartmouth continued holding cryptocurrency ETFs in the last quarter. Laurore Ltd., based in Hong Kong, made a major foray into institutional cryptocurrency by increasing its holdings in BlackRock, Inc.'s Bitcoin ETF by 8 million shares. The supply side is also tightening spontaneously. In April 2024, Bitcoin's fourth halving halved the new issuance. As more tokens are locked up and fewer new tokens are mined, the freely circulating supply available for trading is shrinking even as the price drops. If this trend continues, once a rebound comes, it could be much stronger than the market currently expects. This does not mean that the bottom has been established. The bullish logic is clashing with a market that is unwilling to listen. The bearish arguments have momentum, narrative dominance, and strong support from price charts. But the infrastructure that supports the market - the part that truly collapsed last time - is not only intact but also growing. Whether this is more important than the price, or if the price will eventually bring down the infrastructure, is the bet that contrarian investors are making. At this moment, this voice may seem lonely, but the evidence beneath the price suggests that this situation may not last long. Matthew Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise Asset Management, said, "All the reasons that have driven Bitcoin's rise over the past 15 years still hold. The world is becoming more digital; global concerns about fiat currency are increasing; regulations and entry conditions are constantly improving; and the people growing up with Bitcoin are getting richer and older every year."