Soochow: The fundamentals of photovoltaic equipment suppliers are basically bottoming out, optimistic about the opening of space computing power application scenarios & the growing demand for overseas ground.

Soochow released a research report stating that the fundamentals of the photovoltaic industry will be fully cleared by 2025, and equipment orders are expected to enter a repair channel in 2026. In 2025, the industry will see a deep adjustment, with main chains experiencing increased losses and slower expansion, putting pressure on new orders for photovoltaic equipment. However, leading equipment manufacturers have strengthened cash flow management with payment models such as "3421/3601," concentrating accounts receivable from top customers, fully accounting for credit impairments, and releasing operational risks. With the acceleration of the elimination of outdated production capacity and gradual optimization of industry norms and pricing mechanisms, signals of structural improvement in the supply side are clear. The bank expects that in 2026, against the backdrop of overseas demand release and domestic market clearance, equipment orders are likely to enter a repair channel, making the sector have obvious cycle repair elasticity. Key points from Soochow are as follows: Application of space computing power accelerating, photovoltaics transitioning from ground energy to orbital energy systems, opening up long-term growth space Commercial space transportation costs continue to decline, with both China and the United States planning the deployment capacity of hundred-gigawatt-level space computing power. Space data centers rely heavily on photovoltaic power supply for energy systems, making photovoltaics the core infrastructure of the orbital computing power system. At the scaling stage, energy systems will gradually transition from high-cost gallium arsenide to more cost-effective and scalable silicon-based technologies. HJT's thinning and flexibility properties have potential advantages in weight reduction and compatibility with rollable arrays. The bank believes that space computing power introduces a long-term growth logic of "semiconductor-like equipment" for the photovoltaic equipment industry. Overseas ground demand becomes a realistic incremental source in 2026, resonating with expansion driven by the United States and the Middle East The United States continues to have high growth in new installations, with domestic manufacturing policies strengthening supply chain security and cost control. Tesla plans to have 100GW of ground photovoltaic capacity to match AI computing power requirements. In the context of high labor and hydropower costs, HJT's advantages in low processes, electricity consumption, water consumption, and labor are more suitable for the U.S. manufacturing environment, with long-term competitiveness. At the same time, the Middle East's resource advantages are prominent, with ongoing increases in installed capacity planning, Chinese main chain enterprises accelerating local factories, strengthening the logic of "taking advantage of the sea" for domestic equipment, and a clear trend of increasing overseas revenue share. As the industry faces supply-demand imbalances, a new round of technological iterations becomes a key variable for capacity reset The continuous decline in TOPCon prices squeezes profit margins, forcing the introduction of new technologies. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology increases efficiency, water consumption, and capital thresholds, guiding advanced capacity to replace outdated capacity, with favorable policies for high efficiency and low energy consumption routes. HJT's production efficiency continues to break through, with rapid decreases in silver consumption, combined with the application of 0BB and silver-plated copper technologies, further enhancing cost advantages in the context of rising silver prices. The bank judges that 2026 will enter a "new round of structural expansion driven by technological upgrades." Investment recommendations Under the dual themes of cycle repair and technological upgrades, Soochow recommends the leading HJT equipment manufacturer Suzhou Maxwell Technologies, the leading low-oxygen monocrystalline furnace manufacturer Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical, the leading manufacturer of automated assembly and 0BB equipment Wuxi Autowell Technology Co., Ltd., and the leading manufacturer of ultra-thin silicon wafer cutting equipment Qingdao Gaoce Technology. Risk factors: Risks of industry supply-demand repair falling short of expectations, uncertainties in overseas policies and trade environments, risks of technological and industrialization pace of new technologies and applications falling short of expectations.