Concept tracking of Hong Kong stocks | The trend of rising prices for storage chips is getting more and more intense, and the industry has entered a full-scale seller's market (with concept stocks attached)

At the virtual investor conference held on February 20th, SK Hynix disclosed the latest dynamics of the storage market to Goldman Sachs. SK Hynix sent a strong signal during the conference call: the storage industry has fully entered a seller's market. Due to the drive of AI real demand and limited clean room space, storage prices are expected to continue to rise this year. The company revealed that currently, its DRAM and NAND inventory has dropped to only about 4 weeks of "extremely low levels", and is expected to continue to decline throughout the year. More alarming is that by 2026, the production capacity of High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) has been sold out in advance, and the severe shortage of standard DRAMs is significantly increasing supplier bargaining power, prompting the industry chain to initiate long-term contract negotiations to secure future supply. Regarding the market's most concerned HBM (High Bandwidth Memory), Hynix clearly stated that the production capacity allocation for 2026 has been finalized. Given the current production plans, it is difficult to make meaningful adjustments to the production lines of HBM and standard DRAMs in 2026. With the current tight supply and demand situation for standard DRAMs, this has given Hynix more leverage at the negotiating table. The company believes that this tense situation "may bring more favorable terms for the 2027 HBM business". In terms of capital expenditure, SK Hynix remains sober. The company confirmed that this year's capital expenditure will exceed last year's, but emphasized that they will "continue to adhere to capital expenditure discipline". The investment priorities are very clear: focusing on HBM and standard DRAMs. For the NAND business, although some investment has been restored (mainly for the transition to 321-layer 3D NAND), its proportion in total capital expenditure will remain stable (expected to remain in the low double-digit percentage), without blind expansion. Additionally, reports have stated that Samsung is negotiating the pricing of its latest generation AI storage chip HBM4, with prices expected to be 20% to 30% higher than the previous generation, estimated at around $700. Charu Chanana, Chief Investment Strategist at Shenbao Market, stated that this indicates that the AI storage chip market supply remains tight, and Samsung has regained pricing power in the high-end chip market. Bernstein semiconductor industry analyst Mark Li warned that memory prices are showing a "parabolic" increase. While this will bring hefty profits to Samsung Electronics, Micron Technology, and SK Hynix, other areas of the electronics industry will pay a heavy price in the coming months. Industrial reports state that overall in 2026, the storage industry is struggling to form a scalable effective supply. This trend continues to affect upstream semiconductor equipment and packaging testing sectors, with domestic storage chip designers, storage module manufacturers, semiconductor equipment, and packaging testing companies expected to benefit. CMSC states that since the first quarter of 2026, prices of various storage products have sharply increased month-on-month. It is expected that storage prices will continue to rise this year within a foreseeable range, while global new supply in 2026 is limited, and the trend of storage scarcity is expected to continue until 2027. In a scenario of price and demand resonance, domestic and international storage will have a year of significant performance release in 2026. The future trend in market prices and the sustainability of performance growth in various sectors will be key focus areas, and it is recommended to pay attention to companies related to the three core sectors of storage, equipment, and industry chain. Relevant concept stocks: - Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (00981): Looking towards 2026, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation has released positive signals. The company expects that the full-year sales revenue growth rate in 2026 will exceed the average level of comparable peers, with capital expenditure roughly the same as in 2025, and a steady pace of capacity expansion. In 2025, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation's capital expenditure reached $8.1 billion, with approximately 50,000 12-inch capacity additions; it is expected that in 2026, there will be an additional capacity of approximately 40,000 12-inch wafers per month. - HUA HONG SEMI (01347): HUA HONG SEMI announced its performance for the fourth quarter of 2025 on February 12, with sales revenue reaching a record high of $659.9 million, a year-on-year increase of 22.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.9%. Gross profit margin was 13.0%, a year-on-year increase of 1.6 percentage points and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 0.5 percentage points. The profit attributable to the owners of the parent company was $17.5 million, compared to a loss of $25.2 million in the same period last year, and a profit of $25.7 million in the previous quarter. Additionally, the company expects sales revenue in the first quarter of 2026 to be between $650 million and $660 million; and gross profit margin to be between 13% and 15%. - SHANGHAI FUDAN (01385): SHANGHAI FUDAN recently announced its 2025 performance, with total operating income of approximately 3.982 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.92%; net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company of approximately 232 million yuan, a decrease of 59.42% year-on-year; net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company after deducting non-recurring gains and losses of approximately 143 million yuan, a decrease of approximately 69.29% from the previous year; and basic earnings per share of 0.28 yuan.