OPEC+ plans to resume production increases from April: tensions between the US and Iran support oil prices, while Saudi Arabia and the UAE seize the opportunity to reclaim market share.

Three OPEC+ sources said that OPEC+ is leaning towards resuming production increases from April, as the organization prepares for summer demand peaks and the tense relationship between the US and Iran consolidates strong oil prices. This move will allow OPEC's leading members Saudi Arabia and the UAE to regain market share, while countries such as Russia, Venezuela, and Iran are struggling to cope with Western sanctions and Kazakhstan's production is limited due to a series of setbacks. The eight OPEC+ member countries - Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria, and Oman - will hold a meeting on March 1st. These eight member countries had previously raised production quotas by around 2.9 million barrels per day (about 3% of global demand) from April to December 2025, and had suspended further production increase plans from January to March 2026 due to weak seasonal consumption. Despite market speculation that oversupply will suppress oil prices this year, the Brent crude benchmark is still trading close to $68 per barrel, not far from the six-month high of $71.89 reached in January due to the tense US-Iran situation. Three OPEC+ sources, who did not want to be named, all said that the eight-member countries at the March 1st meeting are leaning towards resuming production quota increases from April. Three other sources familiar with OPEC+ internal considerations also said that they expect the increase in production to resume in April. Two other OPEC+ sources said that no decision has been made yet, and negotiations in the weeks leading up to the March 1st meeting will continue. OPEC, as well as relevant departments in Russia and Saudi Arabia, did not immediately respond to requests for comment.