After panic selling, "whales" buy low and sound the horn for Bitcoin to rebound from the bottom.

During the US stock trading hours on Tuesday and the early Asian session on Wednesday, the world's largest market cap cryptocurrency - Bitcoin (BTC-USD) continued to hover around $69,000. A senior analyst at Compass Point stated that after a recent round of selling, this largest-scale cryptocurrency may be approaching a bottom. At almost the same time, the well-known Wall Street investment firm Cantor Fitzgerald stated that the recent market selling pressure, along with speculation and clearing of leveraged positions, may lay an important foundation for a short-term bottoming rebound or even a more constructive new round of rebound trajectory in the future. Considering the latest views of multiple research institutions, the probability of Bitcoin price forming a bottom has significantly increased. With the selling pressure structure reset and the "Bitcoin whales" (super long wallet holders with over 1,000 Bitcoin) starting to accumulate Bitcoin at lower prices, as long as incremental capital (spot/ETF/long-term allocation or market risk appetite recovery) reappears, Bitcoin is expected to enter a new round of significant rebound trajectory. However, when will incremental capital emerge on a large scale? Will this capital regain confidence in Bitcoin for a new round of long positions? These are the ongoing concerns of cryptocurrency investors. The type of demand-side like "Bitcoin whales" holding the supply side (selling pressure) temporarily and starting a trend of buying at lower levels - such as data showing that some large Bitcoin wallets have increased holdings by about 53,000 coins in a week - can indeed slow down the rate of decline in the short-term and ignite expectations of a short-term bottoming rebound, but "demand revival is still narrow." Without new large-scale incremental demand, this seems more like "damage control" rather than a "return of Bitcoin bullish sentiment." Senior analyst Ed Engel from Compass Point stated in a report on Monday evening, "We believe that the cryptocurrency market is currently in a bottoming phase after a record panic-driven large-scale selling last week." Engel pointed out that investors had realized losses of about $10 billion last week, the second-highest cryptocurrency loss record since June 2022. He stated, "These kinds of large-scale panic selling events usually occur in the final stages of a sharp decline in the market." However, Engel warned that the cryptocurrency market rarely experiences a V-shaped rebound, and he warned that Bitcoin may retest levels around $60,000 and may even drop to $55,000. Since reaching a record high slightly above $126,000 in October, the value of this cryptocurrency has dropped by about 45% due to heightened risk aversion globally, forcing some highly leveraged investors to liquidate their positions and heavy selling by large cryptocurrency holders, leading to the so-called "cryptocurrency winter." Last week, as this cryptocurrency fell below $61,000, selling intensified further, recording the worst single-day decline since November 2022. This massive selling also signaled a liquidity crisis in the cryptocurrency market, leading to a crisis of trust in Bitcoin. The Bitcoin trading price briefly achieved a strong rebound last Friday and has since been fluctuating around the $70,000 mark. Ether (ETH) also fell to nearly $2,000 on Tuesday, expanding its decline since the beginning of the year to about 30%, and continued to hover around $2,000 in the early Asian trading hours on Wednesday. On Monday, analysts from the well-known Wall Street investment firm Bernstein stated, "The bearish situation for Bitcoin is now at its weakest point in history." Analyst Gautam Chhugani and his team wrote, "The current price movement of Bitcoin is just a brief crisis of confidence. Nothing is broken, and no 'skeletons' have been completely unearthed." Chhugani expects Bitcoin to reach a new all-time high again and has set a target price of $150,000 before the end of the year. After the panic selling, Bitcoin may experience a short-term bottoming rebound Another well-known Wall Street institution, Cantor Fitzgerald, also expressed strong confidence in the bottoming rebound of Bitcoin in its latest biweekly macro market report, believing that the recent market pressure may have set an important foundation for a short-term rebound and a more constructive healthy bottoming rebound trend in the future. The institution stated that Bitcoin's sharp selling triggered a widespread phase of derisking and deleveraging, significantly cleaning up market redundancies and large speculative positions. The analysts at the institution pointed out that record volumes and significant outflows from the iShares Bitcoin Trust (the largest Bitcoin ETF, IBIT) serve as evidence of panic selling and the withdrawal of leveraged positions, indicating that the market may have recently cleared out most weak holders. Although Cantor Fitzgerald acknowledges that its long-standing bullish stance on cryptocurrencies has been challenged in recent weeks, it believes that the current price movement is increasingly resembling a "washout" phase, rather than the beginning of a long-term decline. Looking ahead, the company emphasized the strong supportive nature of the macro and liquidity backdrop. The investment firm expects loose monetary conditions to be a decisive theme this year, with driving factors including the new dovish stance of the new Federal Reserve Chairman and a more aggressive stance by the US Treasury - developments seen as favorable for Bitcoin. In the short term, several liquidity-positive factors have emerged, including the end of quantitative tightening, the expansion of the Fed's balance sheet, lower tax withholdings starting from January 1, and a significant increase in tax refund check issuance. Additional support may come from interventions in the mortgage market and potential capital rotation, as a weakening silver price may redirect investor funds to the high-risk and high-volatility Bitcoin. Overall, Cantor Fitzgerald believes that the bottoming rebound is on the horizon, and the investment attractiveness of this cryptocurrency asset in the next few months is significantly increasing. The recent data indicates that Bitcoin has just received new support from some of its largest holders buying at lower levels. However, the return of demand still seems narrow, making one wonder whether this marks a recovery in the cryptocurrency market's risk appetite or is merely a damage/control measure for these large Bitcoin holders. The so-called "Bitcoin whales" wallets accumulated about 53,000 Bitcoins in the past week, the largest buying spree since November; prior to this, these large holders experienced heavy selling for several weeks. This buying has helped stabilize prices after a significant retreat, even though most institutional investors remain on the sidelines. Data from industry research firm Glassnode shows that wallets holding over 1,000 Bitcoins have accumulated over $4 billion worth of the cryptocurrency during this period, interrupting months of selling, which has caused Bitcoin to fall by about 40% from its peak in October. "This will indeed moderate any downward movement," said Brett Singer, Director of Market Sales at Glassnode. "But we still need to see more funds flowing into the market." This reminder is crucial. Although large holders have re-entered the market, the broader trend still appears cautious. According to Glassnode data, excluding exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and funds from cryptocurrency exchanges, large Bitcoin holders (the so-called Bitcoin whales) have been overall net sellers in the past year; since mid-December, over 170,000 coins - valued at about $11 billion - have flowed out of these wallets. The price movement of Bitcoin also reflects this unbalanced support. Since reaching a record high in October, the token briefly dropped to around $60,000 last week before rebounding to around $70,000. The erratic behavior of large holders reinforces an age-old question lingering in the market: who remains to drive the next sustained uptrend? Many investors who bought Bitcoin through newly launched ETFs (major cryptocurrency ETFs) are currently at a loss, making them less willing to aggressively increase their positions. Meanwhile, publicly listed companies that have held Bitcoin as a reserve asset have also slowed their buying pace amid pressures on their stock prices. With a lack of new sources of demand, some Wall Street analysts suggest that the recent buying appears more like damage control rather than a return of bullish sentiment in the cryptocurrency market - a pattern that has supported short-term rebounds in past cycles but has rarely generated lasting momentum on its own. "We will buy again once the storm has passed, as we took profits and sold part of our holdings at the end of last year," said long-term cryptocurrency investor Bruno Ver in an interview. "But for now, we are still in the storm." Glassnode's data tracks Bitcoin wallet clusters, not individual traders. These wallet clusters may include large private investors, cryptocurrency custodian institutions, and accounts associated with institutions. Past trends of bottoming rebounds that eventually built stronger momentum have typically been characterized by more stable accumulation and broader participation from different types of cryptocurrency investors - which is currently lacking in the ongoing downward phase. The likelihood of a short-term upward movement in Bitcoin prices is increasing, but the trend confirmation still requires a large-scale increase in incremental capital. As seen from the "Bitcoin whales" buying at lower levels and the relatively cautious views of analysts from Wall Street, expectations for a significant rebound in Bitcoin are being strengthened, but the trend remains in a phase of "concept validation." Validation signals often lie not in the "buying or not buying by Bitcoin whales" themselves, but in the expansion of participation: for example, whether the accumulation by whales shifts from "one-time support" to "continuous, stable net accumulation," whether ETF/institutional funds transition from "wait-and-see/net outflow" to "sustained net inflows," and whether the price can form higher lows above key support levels with lower volatility. As long as these signals are absent, the benchmark scenario for Bitcoin price trajectory remains: a brief rebound followed by range-bound fluctuations and slow recovery, with the possibility of strengthening after retesting key price levels.