CICC: Fuel cell industry faces short-term pressures, has great long-term development potential.

CICC released a research report stating that during the "Fourteenth Five-Year Plan" period, the promotion progress of fuel cell vehicles was not as expected, there is still a gap from the target, and the fuel cell industry generally faces issues such as weak growth, poor profitability, and accumulated accounts receivable. The bank believes that although the industry faces short-term pressures, China's hydrogen energy strategy is always clear, and it looks forward to the introduction of a new round of supportive policies, as well as the continuous expansion of application scenarios. The fuel cell industry is expected to gradually overcome short-term difficulties and has significant long-term development potential. Main points of CICC: A rush to install fuel cell vehicles in 4Q25, still a gap from the target by 2025 In terms of sales, fuel cell vehicle sales have shown insufficient growth momentum since 2024, with a rush to install fuel cell vehicles in 4Q25 due to the policy window period. In terms of prices, the average price of fuel cell systems has decreased by nearly 90% since 2018, the rapid price decline poses a significant challenge to the profitability of fuel cell manufacturers, and the industry as a whole is still in a trough. Costs, infrastructure, and enterprise cash flow are the three major bottlenecks restricting the promotion of fuel cell vehicles The promotion of fuel cell vehicles still faces multiple obstacles: first, the cost disadvantage is highlighted under the subsidy decline, exacerbating the squeeze on electric vehicles; second, the construction speed of hydrogen stations in recent years is not as expected, the inconvenience of hydrogen refueling is difficult to solve, and the high cost of hydrogen station construction leads to insufficient investment motivation; third, the long subsidy fund distribution period and accumulated accounts receivable will put pressure on the company's operations and may limit the R&D and expansion capabilities of fuel cell manufacturers. Firm hydrogen energy strategy, emergence of new scenarios, optimistic about sustainable development Despite short-term pressures, China positions hydrogen energy as an important part of the future national energy system, hydrogen energy is an important way to achieve carbon neutrality in non-electric sectors. At the policy level, the continuous advancement of hydrogen energy industry planning in many places, support policies such as toll reduction, and the construction of "hydrogen corridors" are being implemented successively; at the application level, fuel cell applications are penetrating into multiple areas from transportation to power generation, energy storage, railway transportation, etc. The bank believes that a second growth curve is foreseeable, supporting the industry's long-term development. Risks Policies are implemented slower than expected, fuel cell and hydrogen energy cost reduction is slower than expected, and industry competition intensifies.