Guotai Haitong: A Thousand Questions Increase Takeout Subsidies, Expected to Maintain Strong Sales of Ready-to-Drink Beverages in the First Quarter.

Guotai Haitong released a research report stating that on February 6th, Alibaba's Qianwen App launched a 30 billion yuan subsidy project for red packets. The Qianwen App activity page shows that the first wave of free activities will last from February 6th to the 12th, with the second wave starting from February 13th. According to data provided by Qianwen, in less than 3 hours of the activity being launched, the orders for bubble tea placed by users have exceeded 1 million. Within just 9 hours of the activity being launched, the "Qianwen Spring Festival 30 Billion Grand Free Order" activity had already received over 10 million orders. Currently, the subsidy for freshly made beverage deliveries continues, with a high expectation for the Spring Festival atmosphere; at the same time, the price war in the freshly made beverage industry is slowing down, optimizing the competitive landscape. Guotai Haitong's main points are as follows: Subsidies launched on Qianwen favor sales of freshly made beverages On February 6th, Alibaba's Qianwen App launched a 30 billion yuan red packet subsidy project. The Qianwen App activity page shows that the first wave of free activities will last from February 6th to the 12th. After all users update the Qianwen App, they will receive a 25 yuan unconditional free order card, which can be used not only to order bubble tea but also to purchase New Year goods through Taobao Flash, or order takeaway. The second wave will begin on February 13th, where users can receive cash red packets, with a maximum of 2888 yuan. With just a one-sentence order on the Qianwen App, the free order card can be immediately used at over 30,000 bubble tea shops nationwide, including brands like HEYTEA, Luckin Coffee, Chatime, Nayuki, AUNTEA JENNY, CHABAIDAO, and CoCo. In addition, for each new friend invited to download the Qianwen App, both parties will receive a 25 yuan free order card, with a maximum of 21 cards per person, equivalent to 525 yuan. Increased subsidies for takeaway, expected continued high sales of freshly made beverages in the first quarter According to the data provided by Qianwen, within less than 3 hours of the activity being launched, orders for bubble tea by users had already exceeded 1 million. Within just 9 hours of the activity being launched, the "Qianwen Spring Festival 30 Billion Grand Free Order" activity had already received over 10 million orders. Price wars in the industry are easing, improving the competitive landscape of bubble tea Kudi raises prices: Starting from February 1, 2026, Kudi Coffee will only keep 3-7 products at low prices in the special price section, while the rest of the products will return to the regular prices of 11.9-16.9 yuan, with some core items seeing a price increase of 30%-60%. Additionally, Kudi has adjusted other promotional activities, such as raising the price of new store first-month vouchers from 6.9 yuan to 8.8 yuan, and increasing the value of new user coupons in referral rewards from 8.8 yuan to 9.9 yuan, while retaining the subsidies from the delivery platforms. Improvement in bubble tea landscape: According to data from Narrow Door Kitchen Eyes, as of January 12, 2026, the latest number of freshly made bubble tea shops was 399,000, with 92,000 new openings in the past year, and a net decrease of 35,000. Target recommendations Recommended: GUMING(01364), MIXUE GROUP(02097), Luckin Coffee, Inc. Sponsored ADR Class A(LKNCY.US), CHABAIDAO(02555), AUNTEA JENNY(02589). Risk warning Weak consumer demand, supervision and management risks for franchise stores, intensified industry competition, and food safety issues.