Guotai Haitong: The AI battle is about to start, it is suggested to pay attention to the tracks that benefit from new scenarios and new ecosystems.

Guotai Haitong released a research report stating that from February 2nd to February 6th, the SW Media Index dropped by 3.30%, ranking 26th out of 31 industries, weaker than the Shanghai Composite Index (down 1.27%), Shenzhen Component Index (down 2.11%), Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 (down 1.33%), and ChiNext Index (down 3.28%). The competition for AI traffic entrances has become increasingly fierce recently, and it is recommended to focus on tracks that benefit from new scenarios and ecosystems. The essence of the AI war is the competition for traffic entrances, as well as the improvement of new scenarios and ecosystems. In this stage, companies in various tracks can enjoy the scenario dividend while also deriving new content forms based on the completion of the AI ecosystem. Based on this, recommended targets mainly include the following categories: 1) Games: AI applications are good distribution channels for games, and the combination of AI and games can explore new gameplay; 2) Film and Television: Various forms of film and television, including movies, dramas, short films, and animations, are expected to benefit from the changes brought by AI; 3) Marketing: The new ecosystem brings more demand for advertising. Main viewpoints of Guotai Haitong are as follows: The competition for traffic entrances is fierce as AI applications become a battleground. During the 2026 Spring Festival, three AI applications, Yuanbao, Qian Wen, and Dou Bao, have launched various activities to attract users and seize AI traffic entrances. Yuanbao's 1 billion yuan cash red envelope activity was the first to kick off, lasting from February 1st to February 17th, with the first round of red envelopes already cashed out; Qian Wen's 3 billion yuan activity started on February 6th, with the first round of activities focusing on free food delivery; Dou Bao (Volcano Engine), as the title sponsor of the 2026 CCTV Spring Festival Gala, has not officially launched its activity yet, but from the preview released, it is expected to be launched on New Year's Eve in conjunction with the CCTV Spring Festival Gala. In the midst of the fiery AI war, Qian Wen, Yuanbao, and Dou Bao ranked the top three on the iPhone app download free list on February 6th, with Yuanbao and Qian Wen both topping the list on the opening day of the activities. AI shapes new scenarios, and companies in multiple tracks are expected to benefit. The essence of the AI war is the competition for traffic entrances, as well as the improvement of new scenarios and ecosystems. In this stage, companies in various tracks can enjoy the scenario dividend while also deriving new content forms based on the completion of the AI ecosystem. Based on this, recommended targets mainly include the following categories: 1) Games: AI applications are good distribution channels for games, and the combination of AI and games can explore new gameplay; 2) Film and Television: Various forms of film and television, including movies, dramas, short films, and animations, are expected to benefit from the changes brought by AI; 3) Marketing: The new ecosystem brings more demand for advertising. China's Internet penetration rate has exceeded 80%, and there are signs of recovery in the advertising market. According to the 57th "China Internet Development Status Statistics Report" released by CNNIC on February 5th, the scale of Internet users in China reached 1.125 billion in 2025, with a penetration rate of 80.1%. At the same time, it is worth noting that the user scale of generative artificial intelligence reached 602 million, with a penetration rate of 42.8%. In addition, according to CTR's statistical data, starting from July 2025, advertising expenditure showed a significant year-on-year increase, with monthly growth rates exceeding double digits from September to November, reaching 16.6% during the big promotion period in November. With the support of AI technology, the advertising market is expected to continue its good performance from the second half of 2025 into 2026. Risks: AI development falls short of expectations, and game revenue falls short of expectations.