Guotai Haitong: Exchange rate and freight rates edge lower, while the overseas demand structure for mechanical exports differentiates.

Guotai Haitong released a research report stating that the US dollar has depreciated slightly against the renminbi, and the shipping costs on major routes continue to decline year-on-year. The US restaurant RPI decreased month-on-month, and the US housing market index is under pressure month-on-month. It is recommended to focus on export-oriented consumer companies with global manufacturing layout, brand output capabilities, and channel integration advantages. In the current external environment changes and policy game background, companies with diversified production capacity allocation, stable customer stickiness, and pricing power are expected to achieve sustained growth in the global trade landscape adjustment. The bank is optimistic about targets with high market share, strong supply chain resilience, and established mature overseas production capacity. Guotai Haitong's main points are as follows: Cost tracking The US dollar has depreciated slightly against the renminbi; shipping costs on European routes, US East Coast routes, US West Coast routes, and Southeast Asian routes have all decreased year-on-year. 1) Exchange rates: As of January 30, 2026, the spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the renminbi was 6.95, up 1.30% from January 23; the euro against the renminbi was 8.28, up 0.97% from January 23. 2) Shipping costs: In the fourth week of January 2026, the China containerized freight index (CCFI) comprehensive index was 1175.59, down 16.92% year-on-year and 2.74% month-on-month; European route was 1574.69, down 25.16% year-on-year and up 0.35% month-on-month; US East Coast route was 975.78, down 24.75% year-on-year and down 0.37% month-on-month; US West Coast route was 867.79, down 27.60% year-on-year and up 1.64% month-on-month; Southeast Asian route was 933.11, down 16.71% year-on-year and down 4.48% month-on-month. Industry high-frequency data tracking 1) US restaurant industry: The US Restaurant Performance Index (RPI) for November 2025 fell compared to the previous month. According to the data from the National Restaurant Association, the November RPI in the US was 99.2, a 0.4% decrease from October's 99.6. 2) US real estate: The US Housing Market Index for January 2026 was -21.28% year-on-year. The January US Housing Market Index was 37, down 5.13% month-on-month and 21.28% year-on-year. In December, the US existing home inventory was 1.18 million units, a 3.51% increase year-on-year; US existing home sales were 4.35 million units, a 1.40% increase year-on-year; US new home sales in October were 7.37 million units, an 18.68% increase year-on-year. 3) Golf cart industry: In December 2025, the export volume of golf carts increased by 1.33% month-on-month and 7.66% year-on-year; the export value increased by 11.21% month-on-month and 8.76% year-on-year. According to data from the General Administration of Customs of China, in December, China's golf cart export value was 43 million USD, with a cumulative export value of 363 million USD from January to December, a 63.74% decrease year-on-year; the export volume in December was 12,100 units, with a cumulative export volume of 105,400 units from January to December, a 62.24% decrease year-on-year. 4) Motorcycle industry: In December 2025, China's motorcycle export value decreased by 2.73% month-on-month and increased by 15.83% year-on-year; the export volume decreased by 6.79% month-on-month and increased by 16.29% year-on-year. Risk warning: Risks include fluctuating tariff policies, macroeconomic fluctuations, intensified competition, etc.