The "unpredictable" diplomacy of Trump is tearing apart the trust of Atlantic China Welding Consumables, Inc.! Scope warns: the deterioration of US-EU relations will drag down the credit prospects of both sides.
The European rating agency Scope pointed out that the unpredictability of President Trump in foreign affairs and the resulting tension in US-Europe relations are affecting the agency's assessment of sovereign credit on both sides of the Atlantic.
The European credit rating agency Scope pointed out that the unpredictability of US President Trump in foreign affairs and the resulting tension in US-Europe relations are affecting the agency's evaluation of the credit of Atlantic China Welding Consumables, Inc.
In a report released on Friday, Scope analysts Alvise Lennkh-Yunus and Eiko Sievert analyzed a series of recent events and warned that the agency's cautious optimism towards Europe could be shaken by deteriorations in any of the following situations: the Greenland dispute, Russia's stance in the region, and domestic politics in France, Poland, or Germany.
Scope stated that the "growing rift" caused by a series of actions by the Trump administration will also impact the credit outlook for the United States.
The analysts wrote in the report, "In a politically charged environment, the possibility of policy mistakes by the US government, both domestically and internationally, is increasing, especially considering the escalating political pressure faced by the Federal Reserve. As US policy uncertainty rises, investors will gradually diversify their holdings of US assets, putting downward pressure on the US dollar, which may lead to upward pressure on risk premiums for future US Treasury issuances, further exacerbating fiscal vulnerability with rising interest expenses."
Scope's outlook on US sovereign credit is markedly different from that of its counterparts, notably downgrading the US sovereign credit rating during the government shutdown last October, two levels lower than similar agencies such as S&P Global Ratings and Moody's. Scope is one of the five collateral credit assessment institutions designated by the European Central Bank and the only European-based institution.
The analysts stated that if US-Europe relations further deteriorate, the impact in the European region will show characteristics of "national differences" and "uneven distribution."
High-rated countries in Northern Europe like Denmark, Norway, and Sweden have strong risk resilience, while Finland, with a lower rating and already on a negative outlook, faces a precarious situation. Scope pointed out that countries in Central and Eastern Europe may also face significant pressure.
The report stated, "If the division between the US and other NATO member countries deepens, European countries may accelerate defense spending, leading to increased fiscal pressure."
Regarding Germany, Lennkh-Yunus and Sievert specifically pointed out that the coalition government led by Chancellor Merkel is currently facing uncertainty in governance, which may put neighboring countries at risk as well.
The analysts wrote, "The political polarization and fragmentation in the largest EU member state may make it difficult for the EU to adopt comprehensive and effective responses to escalating geopolitical threats, especially against the backdrop of increasing US intervention in European internal affairs, which will become more prominent."
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