In the first quarter of 2026, the short-term business prospects of large enterprises in Hong Kong are generally stable, with a slight slowdown in recruitment intentions.

On January 23, the Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department released the results of the Quarterly Survey of Business Expectations for the first quarter of 2026. A spokesperson for the Hong Kong government stated that the overall short-term business prospects of large enterprises in the first quarter of 2026 are generally stable, while overall recruitment intentions are slightly slowing down. Looking ahead, the spokesperson pointed out that the strong momentum of the Hong Kong economy will support the business environment. At the same time, the Hong Kong government will remain vigilant about various uncertainties in the external environment. Business Situation In terms of industries covered by the survey, the proportion of respondents who anticipate better business conditions in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the previous quarter is lower than those who anticipate worse conditions. Compared to the results of the fourth quarter survey in 2025, the proportion of respondents who anticipate better business conditions in the first quarter of 2026 is 11%, slightly lower than the corresponding proportion in the fourth quarter of 2025 (13%). Meanwhile, the proportion of respondents who expect worse business conditions has decreased slightly from 15% in the fourth quarter of 2025 to 14% in the first quarter of 2026. By industry analysis, in most covered industries, respondents overall anticipate worse or relatively unchanged business conditions in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the fourth quarter of 2025. Particularly in the construction industry and accommodation and food services industry, significantly more respondents expect worse business conditions in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the fourth quarter of 2025. On the other hand, in the finance and insurance industry, there are significantly more respondents who anticipate better business conditions than those who anticipate worse conditions. The survey was conducted from December 1, 2025 to January 9, 2026. Business/Output In most covered industries, respondents overall anticipate a decrease or relatively unchanged business/output in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the fourth quarter of 2025. Especially in the accommodation and food services industry and construction industry, significantly more respondents expect a decrease in business volume/completion of construction projects in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the fourth quarter of 2025. Conversely, in the finance and insurance industry, more respondents anticipate an increase in business volume compared to the fourth quarter of 2025. Employment In half of the covered industries, respondents overall anticipate that the number of employees in the first quarter of 2026 will remain relatively unchanged compared to the fourth quarter of 2025. However, in the construction industry, significantly more respondents anticipate a decrease in the number of employees in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the fourth quarter of 2025. Conversely, in the manufacturing and real estate industries, there are more respondents who anticipate an increase in the number of employees than those who anticipate a decrease. Prices of Goods/Services Charges In most covered industries, respondents overall anticipate that the prices of goods or services charges in the first quarter of 2026 will remain relatively unchanged compared to the fourth quarter of 2025. However, in the construction industry, more respondents anticipate a decrease in tender prices in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the fourth quarter of 2025.