Huachuang Securities: The planned interest rate research value for Q4 2025 is 1.89%, and it is estimated that there will be no further adjustments to the upper limit of the planned interest rate in 2026.

Huachuang Securities released a research report stating that the downward trend of the scheduled interest rate research value has significantly converged, and it is expected that the upper limit of the scheduled interest rate will no longer be adjusted in 2026. In the short term, there will no longer be a "speculative suspension" dividend period this year, and it is expected that the growth rate of liabilities in Q3 may be under pressure. At the same time, the improvement in the value rate of new business in the second half of the year may be significantly lower than the same period last year. In the long term, the scheduled interest rate research value may stabilize, releasing positive signals for the long-term development of the industry, and the pressure on asset-side reallocation is significantly converging. The bank believes that under the background of continuous cost reduction of liabilities in the past three years, the "interest rate spread loss" of leading life insurance companies may have been basically resolved, and the PEV valuation of some life insurance targets is expected to recover to more than 1x. The report stated that as of January 20, 2026, the China Insurance Association organized the meeting of the Expert Consultation Committee on Life Insurance Industry Interest Rates Research (formerly the "Expert Consultation Committee on Life Insurance Reserve Assessment Interest Rates") for the fourth quarter of 2025, and believes that the current scheduled interest rate research value for ordinary life insurance products is 1.89%. The latest scheduled interest rate research value is 1.89%, which is 14bps away from the red line adjustment, and the decline compared to the previous quarter has significantly converged. Starting from September 1, 2025, the upper limit of the scheduled interest rate for ordinary life insurance products in the life insurance industry has been reduced from 2.5% to 2%, corresponding to 1.75% for dividend-type products, and the minimum guaranteed interest rate limit for universal life insurance is 1%. According to the dynamic adjustment mechanism of the scheduled interest rate, the scheduled interest rate research value needs to be lower than the current maximum value by 25bps or more for two consecutive quarters to trigger a downward adjustment of the scheduled interest rate upper limit, with the current threshold value being 1.75%. The current research value is 1.89%, a decrease of 1bp compared to the previous quarter, with a significant convergence in decline. Based on the backward calculation of historical scheduled interest rate research values, the bank predicts that if the 10-year treasury bond maturity yield average reaches 1.56% or below for 250 days, it may touch the red line of the scheduled interest rate research value of 1.75%. As of January 21, 2026, the 250-day average of the 10-year treasury bond maturity yield is 1.76%, with the current value being 1.83%. The bank believes that there may still be a possibility of further upward movement in the current interest rate environment in the short term, while the scheduled interest rate research value may have stabilized in the short term. There is a high probability that the scheduled interest rate research value will not be lower than 1.75% in the next quarter, and the bank predicts that the upper limit of the scheduled interest rate for ordinary life insurance products in the life insurance industry may remain at the current level of 2% in 2026.