The number of initial jobless claims in the United States unexpectedly fell below 200,000 last week, but the seasonal fluctuations could not hide the stagnant trend in the job market.

Last week, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States unexpectedly dropped to the lowest level since November of last year, remaining low after holiday season fluctuations. According to data released by the US Department of Labor on Thursday, for the week ending on January 10th, the number of initial jobless claims decreased by 9,000 to 198,000, lower than all expectations of economists surveyed by institutions. The number of continued jobless claims in the US as of January 3rd was 1.884 million, expected 1.893 million, with the previous value revised from 1.914 million to 1.903 million. Institutional analysis believes that the unexpected decrease in initial claims may reflect the continued challenge of seasonal adjustment data due to end-of-year holiday and early new year fluctuations. Labor market dynamics have not changed significantly, layoffs remain low, and hiring remains slow. In recent years, the number of initial jobless claims has only been below 200,000 a few times. The four-week moving average of new claims, used to smooth fluctuations, dropped to 205,000 last week, the lowest level in two years. Thursday's data showed that there was no significant increase in layoffs at the beginning of the year, although these data may still be affected by holiday-related fluctuations. While several large employers, including PepsiCo and Meta Platforms, recently announced layoff plans, specific data show that these plans have not yet translated into large-scale layoffs. A survey by the University of Michigan shows that in recent weeks, consumers remain pessimistic about the labor market, with nearly two-thirds expecting the unemployment rate to rise in the next year. The unexpected decrease in initial jobless claims may not necessarily indicate a substantive change in the labor market, which remains stagnant. The Federal Reserve's Beige Book report released on Wednesday stated that the "employment situation remained basically unchanged" at the beginning of January. The Federal Reserve stated that multiple regions "reported an increase in the use of temporary workers, with one interviewee stating that this helped them 'maintain flexibility during uncertain times'". The Federal Reserve added that companies are primarily hiring "to fill vacant positions, rather than creating new ones". Economists believe that Trump's aggressive trade and immigration policies have reduced the demand and supply of labor. As companies invest heavily in artificial intelligence, it suppresses hiring and also creates uncertainty about their own personnel needs.