Economic resilience exceeds expectations! The World Bank raises global growth forecast to 2.6%, with strong performance from the US economy.

The World Bank has raised its growth forecast for this year, pointing out that despite the "historic" escalation of trade tensions in the global economy, it still shows surprising resilience to shocks. The Washington-based lending institution said in a report released on Tuesday that global real GDP growth is now expected to reach 2.6% in 2026, up from the previous forecast of 2.4% in June. In particular, the boost to the U.S. economy is particularly significant - this year's growth forecast has been revised up from the previous estimate of 1.6% to 2.2%. The revised global growth forecast for 2026 shows a modest slowdown compared to the actual growth in 2025 (which was higher than the World Bank's previous expectations). Specifically, global economic growth reached an estimated 2.7% in 2025, mainly benefiting from three main drivers: first, before the implementation of President Donald Trump's tariff policy, businesses and households stockpiled goods in large quantities to take advantage of the window, directly driving a surge in international trade; second, the actual inhibitory effect of high tariff policies on the economy was weaker than expected; and third, continued spending in the information and technology sector provided structural support for growth. World Bank Chief Economist Aaditya Mattoo said, "Global growth is stuck in a specific range. While the economy shows resilience, it fails to achieve accelerated growth." He further explained that since 2023, actual GDP growth has fluctuated between 2.6% and 2.8%, while the average growth in the decade before the pandemic (2010-2019) was 3.2%, showing a sharp contrast. The World Bank has followed the lead of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in raising its forecast for economic growth in 2025. Previously, the IMF had already raised its forecast for growth in 2025 in October, warning of possible downward pressure in the future - a warning that echoes the resilience of the global economy. According to the arrangement, the IMF will officially release its latest forecast report next Monday. The World Bank said in the report that the resilience of the world economy is "quite significant," but risks remain tilted to the downside. "There is a significant risk of further escalation in trade tensions, especially higher tariffs that may redirect exports to third countries, prompting domestic producers in those countries to seek protection against increased import competition." The World Bank report also shows: - China's economic growth is expected to be 4.9% in 2025 and 4.4% in 2026, both revised up from previous forecasts. - Global inflation rate in 2026 may slightly decrease to 2.6%, 0.3 percentage points lower than previous expectations. - The average price of Brent crude oil is expected to drop from $69 per barrel in 2025 to $60 per barrel in 2026. - Over the next decade, 1.2 billion young people in emerging markets will reach working age, creating employment remains a top priority.