China’s “Escalation Dominance” Narrative Frames Wider Geopolitical and Strategic Shifts

The term “escalation dominance” in this context refers to China’s ability to shape the strategic landscape in ways that constrain or blunt US initiatives, particularly those aimed at economic decoupling or technological containment. Analysts argue that key American policies, such as limitations on export controls, tariffs, and sanctions, have either failed to curb China’s technological rise or produced unintended openings for Beijing to strengthen its industrial capabilities. For example, the US decision to allow sales of advanced AI chips to China under favourable terms has been interpreted as undermining Washington’s own objectives of restricting China’s access to cutting-edge technology, while simultaneously benefiting US corporate interests tied to export revenue. 

Beyond technology, the narrative of strategic ascendancy encompasses energy and geopolitical alliances. The Trump administration’s pivot toward fossil fuel expansion and rollback of certain clean energy policies has arguably ceded ground to China’s rapid growth in renewable manufacturing and energy infrastructure exports. China now leads global production in sectors such as solar panels, wind turbines, and electric vehicles, positioning itself as an indispensable supplier in decarbonisation efforts worldwide even as US energy policy emphasises hydrocarbons. This structural shift punctuates Beijing’s influence in setting global clean-tech standards and supply pathways, reinforcing its economic leverage over markets that will define future energy transitions. 

Strategically, China’s influence extends through diplomatic and security relationships, particularly among emerging economies in Africa, Asia, and Latin America. Through initiatives such as the Belt and Road Initiative, infrastructure financing, and trade partnerships, Beijing has deepened ties with key actors while presenting itself as an alternative to Western leadership. This has complicated traditional US alliances and raised questions about the efficacy of American foreign policy in maintaining influence across critical regions. In some cases, Chinese engagement has filled vacuums left by perceived US retrenchment or inconsistent strategic commitments, reinforcing China’s global footprint. 

Critics of the escalation dominance thesis argue that it overstates China’s current strategic position and underplays US institutional strengths, such as innovation ecosystems and military alliances, that continue to shape global order. Nevertheless, the narrative reflects a broader perception that US policy missteps, internal political fragmentation, and shifting priorities have afforded China space to advance its interests with less resistance. As great-power competition intensifies, the framing of strategic dominance will influence policy debates in capitals around the world and shape how states navigate the evolving balance between cooperation and rivalry with China.