When AI infrastructure frenzy and storage supercycle arrive, ASML Holding NV ADR (ASML.US) "100% share" moat becomes even stronger.

ASML Holding NV ADR, the lithography machine giant based in the Netherlands, has introduced EUV lithography machines which are unprecedented and essential for semiconductor equipment for leading chip manufacturers such as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR, Samsung Electronics, and others to create AI chips for cutting-edge AI applications like ChatGPT and Claude, under the global AI boom since 2023. This equipment is also necessary for creating HBM storage systems and core storage devices for data centers like SK Hynix and Micron Technology, Inc. in the ongoing "storage super cycle" which may last until 2027. Under the catalysis of the global AI boom, the arms race for AI infrastructure is still in full swing, with the company's management expressing an optimistic stance on rare earth supply chain issues and performance growth expectations from 2026 to 2030. The latest financial results show that ASML Holding NV ADR's third quarter orders accumulated to 5.4 billion euros, surpassing the market expectations of 4.9 billion euros. The orders for extreme ultraviolet lithography machine (EUV) reached a near seven-quarter high. ASML Holding NV ADR's CEO Christophe Fouquet reiterated in the performance statement that with the boost from the AI boom, the company's annual net sales are expected to increase significantly from 28.3 billion euros last year to the long-term target of 60 billion euros by 2030. ASML Holding NV ADR's recent strong performance and optimistic outlook for the future, especially with the strong growth expectations until 2030, have significantly reinforced the market's expectation that the AI computing industry chain will continue to thrive. Since September, with the catalysis from the more expensive new generation EUV lithography machine - High-NA lithography machine transitioning from laboratory validation to deployment in chip manufacturing, and the investment in Mistral AI, ASML Holding NV ADR's stock price has significantly entered an upward trajectory, reaching record highs multiple times recently. In September, ASML Holding NV ADR's ADR (ASML.US) achieved its best performance in the past twenty years, with a cumulative increase of 60% since 2025, and a surge of over 45% since September, driven by investors' expectation that the rapid construction of AI infrastructure projects will drive leading chip manufacturers like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR to significantly expand capacity for 3nm and below advanced AI chips, as well as drive SK Hynix to expand HBM and data center enterprise level storage capacity, thereby leading to a sharp increase in semiconductor equipment orders. As shown in the above figures, ASML Holding NV ADR's stock price has significantly increased, making it the most valuable company in Europe based on the European market value calculation. NVIDIA Corporation's collaboration with long-time rival Intel Corporation, as well as NVIDIA Corporation's partnership with OpenAI, AMD's collaboration with OpenAI, can be regarded as pushing the "data center CPU+GPU platformization" to a higher dimension, where the demand and capacity for advanced AI chips of 3nm and below processes are expected to enter a much stronger growth trajectory, benefiting sub-sectors such as EDA software/semiconductor manufacturing equipment/packaging testing/high-speed interconnect. According to Wall Street giants such as Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, Loop Capital, and Wedbush, the global investment wave in AI infrastructure focusing on AI computing hardware is far from over and is just the beginning. Under the unprecedented "AI inference end computing power demand storm", which is expected to continue until 2030, the scale of this wave of investment in AI infrastructure is expected to reach $3-4 trillion by 2030. Recently, Wells Fargo & Company released a bullish research report on the semiconductor equipment industry, stating that with the global AI infrastructure construction led by technology giants like Microsoft Corporation, Alphabet Inc. Class C, and Meta becoming more heated, it will significantly boost the expansion of 3nm and below advanced logic chip production and advanced packaging capacity, accelerating the long-term bull market logic of the semiconductor equipment sector. ASML Holding NV ADR is one of the semiconductor equipment stocks that Wells Fargo & Company has a long-term positive outlook on. Wells Fargo & Company stated that all news related to catalyzing advanced node AI chip production capacity is positive for semiconductor equipment. Architecture updates, more complex and powerful CPU/GPU packaging heterogeneity (based on NVLink interconnection, as well as chiplet advanced packaging such as CoWoS/EMIB/Foveros) will significantly boost EUV/High-NA lithography machines, advanced packaging equipment, detection measurement structural requirements, benefiting ASML Holding NV ADR, Applied Materials, and KLA-Tencor, among other semiconductor equipment manufacturers. The latest semiconductor industry outlook data released by the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics organization (WSTS) shows that global chip demand is expected to continue to be strong, with a strong rebound anticipated in 2026, and that MCU chips and analog chips, which have been weak in demand since the end of 2022, are expected to enter a strong recovery curve. The WSTS predicts that after a strong rebound in 2024, the global semiconductor market will grow by 22.5% in 2025, with a total value of $772.2 billion, higher than the outlook given by WSTS in the spring; the total value of the semiconductor market in 2026 is expected to expand to $975.5 billion, close to SEMI's market scale goal of $1 trillion by 2030, which implies a year-on-year increase of 26%. The WSTS stated that this two-year trend of strong growth is mainly due to the dominance of AI GPU logic chips and HBM storage systems, DDR5 RDIMM, and enterprise data center NAND, which will continue to see strong double-digit growth. This is due to the continued strong expansion demand in areas such as AI inference systems, cloud computing infrastructure, and cutting-edge consumer electronics. How will ASML Holding NV ADR achieve significant revenue expansion in the global continuous surge in AI computing demand? When Christophe Fouquet interviewed for a job at ASML Holding NV ADR in 2007, he made an unusual request: could he accept a position that was one level lower than the one offered by the Dutch semiconductor equipment company? He wanted to study the technical details of the new chip manufacturing machines that ASML Holding NV ADR sold to tech giants like Intel Corporation and Samsung Electronics. After being hired the following year, he spent several weeks studying the product catalog until he could recite key features and functions by heart during his interview with clients, even today. He is now the CEO of ASML Holding NV ADR, and he expressed his enthusiasm for leading the company to advance AI chip technology. In recent years, ASML Holding NV ADR has become a symbol of global AI prosperity and a significant part of the technology industry built on its lithography foundation. The company manufactures lithography machines needed to produce the most advanced AI chips used by NVIDIA Corporation, which in turn power the artificial intelligence models of OpenAI, Microsoft Corporation, and almost all other competitors in AI applications. In the high-end lithography machine sector of the market, ASML Holding NV ADR has a market share of 100%, surpassing NVIDIA Corporation's share in AI chips and OpenAI's share in AI chatbots, Siasun Robot & Automation. In ASML Holding NV ADR's campus in Veldhoven, the CEO Christophe Fouquet explained why no other company can do what ASML Holding NV ADR does. The company conducts highly intense scientific research, testing the limits of physics, and works closely with top global suppliers to achieve breakthroughs in lasers, glass, and other components. All of this must be orchestrated to such a precise degree that ASML Holding NV ADR can promise to deliver the next generation of more advanced machines in five years, which can produce semiconductors meeting the demands of NVIDIA Corporation and Apple Inc. As industry insiders like to say, this is not rocket science, but it is more difficult than rocket science. "ASML Holding NV ADR is irreplaceable," said Chris Miller, a Professor of International History at Tufts University and author of "Chip War", in an interview. "Without them, it would be impossible to produce the most advanced semiconductors globally." Under the unprecedented global wave of AI deployment by enterprises, the semiconductor industry has never been more critical than it is now. AI enthusiasts like NVIDIA Corporation's CEO Jensen Huang and OpenAI's Sam Altman are pushing for a competitive edge, leading to a frenzy of investment in data centers and other core AI computing infrastructure. Sam Altman alone has outlined a plan to invest $1.4 trillion in building large AI data centers. Wall Street analysts who are bullish on the global stock market's investment frenzy in AI infrastructure generally believe that if the AI boom continues in the long term, ASML Holding NV ADR's revenue could grow by about 35% between this year and 2027, exceeding 43 billion euros ($50 billion). Alternatively, if this boom in AI infrastructure investment were to burst, the growth might stall. As shown in the figures above, ASML Holding NV ADR's revenue has significantly increased along with the advancements in lithography tool technology and AI chip technology. Certainly, some investors who are fond of popular AI tech stocks like NVIDIA Corporation, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR, and SK Hynix are starting to get nervous. NVIDIA Corporation's market value has evaporated by about $700 billion since its peak six weeks ago, as skeptics question whether such substantial AI spending is worth it. A major unknown is whether NVIDIA Corporation can continue to create groundbreaking AI chips, which to some extent depend on the lithography machines in ASML Holding NV ADR's Veldhoven campus. Christophe Fouquet is confident that the semiconductor equipment company he leads can deliver the next generation of lithography machines. He believes that ASML Holding NV ADR's work in the lithography field - using a beam of light to draw the most complex chip designs in human history on silicon wafers - has laid the foundation for the chip industry to keep up with Jensen Huang's and Altman's grand visions for artificial intelligence. "In the next 10 to 15 years, we roughly know what we need to do for our customers," he said in an interview in the company's boardroom. "Better lithography means better resolution, better accuracy, and stronger productivity. And we will invest a lot of effort in these three axes for many years to come." The next major test for ASML Holding NV ADR is the transition from extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV) technology to high numerical aperture (High NA EUV). ASML Holding NV ADR has introduced EUV machines - and remains the only company capable of manufacturing them - helping customers to advance processes from 7nm to the 3nm advanced processes adopted by NVIDIA Corporation and Apple Inc. The High NA EUV machines are designed to push geometric dimensions to 2nm and even below, meaning circuits of smaller sizes, implying increased performance. For Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR, as well as for Intel Corporation and Samsung Electronics, who are developing 2nm and below node manufacturing technologies, the ASML Holding NV ADR High NA EUV lithography machine is crucial. With a High NA of 0.55 NA, High-NA brings a new boundary of resolution, mask, and process integration with its non-unity optical projection, thus accelerating advanced nodes, reducing a lithography, and improving line width/overlay. Large customers like Intel Corporation and SK Hynix are testing these groundbreaking new machines that will make chip components more capable of running advanced applications in AI and other domains, and Fouquet says they are gradually moving towards commercial production. "We have proven breakthrough improvements in lithography for these tools designed," he emphasized. "The final images are very good, and resolution is very good. Now we are completing the final shaping of the lithography system together with them." ASML Holding NV ADR will actively collaborate with major customers like Intel Corporation to ensure that the High-NA EUV lithography machines are running at a minimum downtime by next year. Fouquet expects high-volume manufacturing to be achieved in 2027 and 2028. By some time in the next decade, ASML Holding NV ADR will introduce a more advanced lithography technology internally known as Hyper NA. Fouquet says the research for this next step has already begun. The technical knowledge accumulated by Fouquet in his early years is crucial for the collaboration with customers. He hosts executive review meetings twice a year with CEOs of chip manufacturers like Intel Corporation, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR, outlining the production roadmap for the next 10 years. ASML Holding NV ADR explains the technical specifications of the upcoming lithography machines, giving both parties the opportunity to identify technical gaps or mismatches years in advance. An imminent question is the unending demand in the market for stronger AI capabilities. The traditional rhythm of the chip industry has been to double the number of transistors on chips every two years - this is Moore's Law - but NVIDIA Corporation's vision is much quicker than Moore's Law. "They want the number of transistors to grow sixteenfold every two years," Fouquet said. "So the industry is moving beyond Moore's Law." At the same time, ASML Holding NV ADR, under Fouquet's leadership, must navigate the complexity of the geopolitical situation led by the US-dominant GEO Group Inc. Last year, China was ASML Holding NV ADR's largest market as China massively promoted the development of a domestic chip industry, but the company is banned from selling all types of EUV and its most advanced DUV to the Chinese market. The lithography equipment sold by ASML Holding NV ADR to Chinese customers lags behind by eight generations compared to the latest High-NA lithography equipment. High-risk bets, and a monopolistic moat The success of ASML Holding NV ADR stems from its critical bet about thirty years ago on a key lithography technology - a bet that even the company's engineers had concerns about potentially losing out to Nikon and Canon. The Dutch conglomerate Koninklijke Philips N.V. Sponsored ADR (Philips) and the chip equipment manufacturer ASM International NV established a joint venture named ASM Lithography in 1984 to develop lithography systems. ASM Lithography was the original name of ASML Holding NV ADR. At that time, competition from Japanese competitors, including Canon Inc. and Nikon Corp., was intense, making it challenging for ASML Holding NV ADR. ASM International chose to exit, selling its shares to Koninklijke Philips N.V. Sponsored ADR. In the 1990s, a European consortium consisting of ASML Holding NV ADR and a group of government-backed companies in Japan competed to create - and subsequently control - a new ultraviolet light to write circuits more precisely on semiconductors, namely EUV. By the early 2000s, after about a decade of testing and initial production work, the Japanese side chose to "unplug the plug" due to high costs and lack of progress. "It was considered too risky at the time," said David Dai, a senior analyst at Bernstein. "No one knew how long success would take." ASML Holding NV ADR persevered. This effort was so crucial for the global chip industry that the Dutch company received funding from major chip manufacturers including Intel Corporation, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR, and Samsung. They needed EUV - a wavelength that only naturally occurs on the sun - to keep shrinking circuit sizes and make processors more powerful. They also needed extremely flat mirrors and lenses to focus this light and create narrower circuit linewidths. "If it weren't for the breakthrough in EUV technology, the entire semiconductor advanced manufacturing process would have stagnated for decades," Dai said. ASML Holding NV ADR finally delivered an EUV prototype in the mid-2000s, allowing it to share the technology with external researchers. This technology uses lasers to strike tin droplets, creating plasma that emits an EUV beam with a wavelength of only 13.5 nanometers - far smaller than the previous generation's 193-nanometer deep ultraviolet light. ASML Holding NV ADR first demonstrated that this technology could be commercialized for chip manufacturing on a large scale, even though it took more than ten years for the machines to have high-volume manufacturing capabilities. For ASML Holding NV ADR, the returns on this technology have been extraordinary. Bernstein analyst Dai stated that ASML Holding NV ADR's market share in the lithography market has increased from under 40% during the period of competition with Nikon and Canon to over 90% last year. The early commercialization of EUV lithography could not have been possible without coordination with around 1,000 suppliers, with a high-power laser system from Trumpf providing laser pulses to strike tin droplets at a rate of 50,000 hits per second (at least 125 wafers per hour), and tackling tin contamination causing "dirty deposition". ASML Holding NV ADR also invested in companies like Zeiss and held shares in key suppliers to drive process upgrades. In 2018, Fouquet was appointed to lead the EUV project, ASML Holding NV ADR's orders grew more than threefold in the four years leading up to 2021, with EUV equipment accounting for about half of that year's orders. New machines sold by ASML Holding NV ADR often require a 2-3 year adjustment period with customers, improving production stability and cost efficiency through deploying a large number of engineers; the difference in yield plays a crucial role: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR's yield is considered an industry benchmark of about 90%, while a 30% yield means costs are three times higher. ASML Holding NV ADR also guarantees equipment availability under contracts (mature technology typically surpasses 90%), and quickly addresses faults with a 24/7 on-site "first response" mechanism. This unique model with advanced technology, locked supply chains, and deep customer integration, undoubtedly holds significant market value as ASML Holding NV ADR possesses the most solid monopolistic moat in the semiconductor industry. Sandeep Deshpande, a senior analyst at Morgan Stanley, recently listed ASML Holding NV ADR as the top pick in the bank's semiconductor sector, and raised his forecast for the company's overall revenue growth to 29% by 2027. In his research report, he wrote, "The only risk we see in this forecast is whether semiconductor manufacturers have enough capacity to build chip manufacturing-level cleanrooms." Another Morgan Stanley report released recently shows that ASML Holding NV ADR is benefiting from the double boost in demand for DRAM storage and GPU logic chips like AI chips, showing a more positive growth trend for the 2026-2027 fiscal year than previously expected by the institution. Morgan Stanley stated that the iteration of DRAM technology is essential to the enhancement of lithography strength, as the evolution at each technology node will "lead to an increase in EUV lithography layers, while Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR's expansion of 3nm and 2nm capacity, and even more advanced 1.8nm and 1.6nm capacities have brought ASML Holding NV ADR a strong growth trend." ASML Holding NV ADR does have competitors, but their lithography technology research progress lags far behind that of ASML Holding NV ADR. Supported by "father of Silicon Valley venture capital" Peter Thiel, the San Francisco-based startup company Substrate announced plans to challenge ASML Holding NV ADR's lithography machines with X-ray-based technology, although production is still several years away. "We will see others attempt lithography