Sing short 2026 oil prices on Wall Street, OPEC still adhere to the optimistic narrative of "stable growth in demand".

The monthly report released by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on Thursday showed that the broader "OPEC+ oil-producing countries organization" slightly increased crude oil production in November, with eight OPEC+ member countries advancing a new round of production increase plans, while the organization maintained its forecast of relatively strong growth in crude oil demand for next year unchanged. In contrast, Wall Street is generally pessimistic about the global crude oil demand outlook for 2026, with significant continued oversupply of crude oil expected throughout the year. According to the average forecasts of U.S. banks Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley, the Brent crude oil futures price currently trading around $61-62 per barrel is expected to further decline to around $59 in 2026. This year, the international benchmark price has already fallen nearly 20%. In this latest monthly report, OPEC stated that in November, OPEC+ organization, including oil-exporting countries organization and allies such as Russia, produced 43.06 million barrels per day, an increase of about 43,000 barrels per day from the previous month's actual production. The OPEC report stated that the organization does not expect any "oversupply" in the market supply and demand outlook, insisting that the market is "fundamentally balanced" and demand is steadily increasing. OPEC predicts that in the first quarter of 2026, global market demand for OPEC+ crude oil will average 42.60 million barrels per day, with an average demand of approximately 43.00 million barrels per day for the year 2026. OPEC also maintains its forecast for global crude oil demand growth in 2025 and 2026, stating that the world economy is still on a steady trajectory of increasing oil demand. The average forecast of five major business banks on Wall Street, including Goldman Sachs, shows that due to the global actual production surpassing demand growth by a large margin in 2026, the global oil market will face an oversupply of approximately 2.20 million barrels per day next year. Goldman Sachs predicts that the average 2026 Brent crude oil futures price will be around $56 per barrel, with WTI crude oil futures around $52 per barrel, significantly lower than current levels. Analysts at JPMorgan recently stated in a report that they expect the average price of Brent crude oil in 2026 and 2027 to be between $57 and $58 per barrel, and unless the OPEC+ oil-producing countries organization begins to implement large-scale production cuts, oil prices may fall to around $30 per barrel. They predict that from June 2026, the global oil market will need to reduce production by approximately 2 million barrels per day. These banks' forecasts for oversupply are lower than the latest expectations of the International Energy Agency, the major energy advisor to the world's economies. The IEA predicts a record high enormous oversupply of almost 4 million barrels per day, but also believes that adjustments by oil-producing countries may curb the extent of the oversupply. Based on improved macroeconomic prospects and the "fundamental fading of tariff-related concerns," the IEA has also slightly raised its global crude oil demand growth expectations for the next two years. The agency pointed out that due to sanctions on Russia and Venezuela impacting exports, global crude oil supply growth for 2025-2026 will be slightly lower than previously expected, but overall still shows a significant oversupply situation. The IEA forecasts that global oil supply will increase by 2.40 million barrels per day next year, down from the previous forecast of 2.50 million barrels per day. The report shows that global crude oil supply decreased by 610,000 barrels per day in November, as a result of significant declines in oil production in sanctioned Russia and Venezuela. The IEA mentioned that Russian oil export revenues in November fell to the lowest level since the outbreak of the full-scale Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022.