Industry leaders: The world's copper is flowing to the United States. This is a great opportunity for copper bulls.

The director of the metal business group of Mercuria Energy Group, Kostas Bintas, recently reiterated his bullish forecast for copper prices and issued a warning that with a large amount of metal flowing into the US market, copper inventories in other regions of the world face further depletion risks. He described the current situation as a "great opportunity" for copper bulls. According to reports, Bintas pointed out that lucrative arbitrage trading in the US is making a comeback, leading to supply shortages in regions outside the US and pushing copper prices, the global benchmark industrial metal price, only higher. He emphasized that if the current trend is examined purely from a mathematical perspective, tight market supply and price increases will be the only answer, with even Chinese buyers eventually having to pay higher premiums to ensure supply. Traders are shipping large amounts of metals to the higher-priced US market to profit from price differentials, thereby changing market dynamics. This premium is largely driven by continued uncertainty about future tariff policies. Although Trump temporarily exempted refined copper from tariffs earlier this year, he indicated that he would review this decision in the second half of 2026, prompting the market to accelerate hoarding once again. At the end of an important industry conference held in Shanghai, Bintas stated in an interview that if the current flow of funds continues, other regions of the world will face a situation where "there is no copper available." As a globally renowned metal trader, Mercuria Energy Group expanded its metal market business on a large scale last year and was one of the main participants in large-scale arbitrage trading earlier this year. Arbitrage trading restarts with increased US imports With the rebound in deliveries to the US, Mercuria expects a significant increase in copper imports in the US in the coming months. The company predicts that the import rate in the first quarter of 2026 will be comparable to the record level set in the second quarter of 2025 when imports exceeded 500,000 tons. This trend continues a tumultuous year in the copper market. Earlier this year, after Trump first threatened to impose tariffs, US copper prices surged, leading to a massive flow of metals from other regions to the US. Although the subsequent tariff exemption policy caused prices to temporarily fall, a series of mine supply disruptions globally led to tightening global supply, combined with traders rushing to ship metals before potential tariffs were implemented, global copper prices have recently climbed to near historic highs. While Bintas refused to provide specific price predictions, he firmly believes that the current market structure - weak demand, surplus existence but prices still rising - is a "special dynamic." He believes that as producers, manufacturers, and traders lock in supply agreements for next year, the industry is increasingly aware that the continuing flow of metals to the US may lead to shortages in the Chinese market as well. Shift in pricing power: the US becomes the largest copper consumer Bintas admitted that his bullish logic is being driven by US policy. Nick Snowdon, head of metals and mining research at Mercuria, pointed out that the largest copper consumer country in the world has now shifted to the US. Market data shows that futures prices in New York currently carry a substantial premium over the London benchmark price. Mercuria predicts that as the tariff bets in the New York market continue to attract metal flows to the US, Asian buyers will soon find themselves embroiled in bidding wars. This polarized market structure has created a "dual-speed" mechanism: LME and Shanghai copper futures contracts are primarily supported by Russian and Chinese metals, while metals deliverable to Comex enjoy high premiums. Previously, other trading executives like IXM and Gunvor Group also warned that a series of mine supply disruptions could lead to supply shortages. Surging Asian premiums and future tightening fears Currently, traders' bids have driven up premiums for deliverable copper. According to earlier reports, some traders were trying to buy next year's Chilean copper at a premium of over $500 compared to the LME price. As the world's largest copper producer, Chile's Codelco recently shocked Asian buyers with benchmark premiums of over $300 per ton offered to Korean and Chinese customers. Bintas pointed out that although Chinese buyers are currently hesitant about such high prices, he believes they will eventually accept them. He stated that what seems like a high number today may seem low in a few weeks, and transactions in the Asian market will definitely be made in a premium range above $200. Looking ahead, Bintas outlined a more tense scenario: if US copper prices continue to rise to $12,000 or $15,000, Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) prices will need time to catch up, leading to a large outflow of Chinese copper cathodes. However, when Chinese buyers return from the Spring Festival holiday, they may find that there is not enough copper supply in the market. This article is reprinted from "Wall Street News," author: Ye Huiwen; GMTEight editor: Xu Wenqiang.