Goldman Sachs raises next year's iron ore price forecast but still maintains a bearish stance.

Influenced by factors such as macroeconomic support, tightening inventory, and strong steel production in China, Goldman Sachs has raised its 2026 price forecast for iron ore. However, they still expect prices next year to fall from current levels. Analysts, including Aurelia Waltham, stated in a report that Goldman Sachs predicts the average price of iron ore in 2026 to be $93 per ton, which is $5 higher than their previous forecast. Analysts stated in the report, "In recent months, the iron ore market has been tighter than we expected." They mentioned that strong steel production in China, stable port inventories over the past two quarters, and the appreciation of the yuan have supported iron ore prices. Iron ore futures rose for the third consecutive day, increasing by 0.7% to $106.45 per ton as of the time of writing. With China taking measures to reduce industrial excess capacity, iron ore futures prices have rebounded by about 15% from the low point in mid-June. Despite strong steel exports, demand remains under pressure. Goldman Sachs stated that the outlook is still not optimistic, forecasting that iron ore prices will drop to $88 per ton by the last quarter of 2026, although this figure is higher than the previous forecast of $80. On the supply side, Goldman Sachs mentioned that global iron ore shipments have increased by 15% year-on-year so far this quarter. This could exacerbate seasonal increases in port inventories and lead to continued growth in inventories throughout 2026.