Sealand: Maintains "Buy" rating on POP MART (09992), overseas market performance continues to exceed the bank's expectations.

Sealand released a research report maintaining a "buy" rating on POP MART (09992), raising the company's profit forecast. It is expected that the company's revenue from 2025 to 2027 will be 385.30/494.99/585.48 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to the mother will be 131.28/170.25/201.87 billion yuan, with adjusted net profit of 135.42/175.58/208.43 billion yuan, corresponding to an adjusted PE of 21/16/14X. As a pioneer and leader in trendy culture and commercialization, the company operates and monetizes IP on a multi-dimensional level based on its full industry chain and platform advantages. Moreover, the logic of product category expansion continues to be validated, and the company's performance in overseas markets continues to exceed expectations. Event: On October 21, 2025, the company announced the operating status of 2025Q3 (unaudited), with a year-on-year revenue growth of 245%-250% in 2025Q3, including a 185%-190% growth in China and a 365%-370% growth overseas. Sealand's main points are as follows: Continuing high growth in overseas revenue, accelerated store openings in North America (1) Overseas regions in Asia-Pacific, the Americas, Europe, and other areas saw year-on-year growth of 170%-175%, 1265%-1270%, and 735%-740%. Offline: As of the end of 2025Q3, there were 154 overseas stores (guidance to reach 200 by the end of 2025, with 128 stores in the 2025H1 financial report as of the end of 2025H1, expecting to open 72 in 2025H2), including 79/47/28 stores in Asia-Pacific/the Americas/Europe and other regions, with 26 new stores opened in 2025Q3 (8/9/9 new stores opened in July-September), including 7/14/5 new stores in Asia-Pacific/the Americas/Europe and other regions. Online: According to fastmoss, the total GMV on TikTok channels in 2025Q3 was 356 million yuan (up 8.4% month-on-month), with the United States/Thailand/the United Kingdom ranking as the top three countries, with 270/34/27 million yuan respectively. (2) The pace of store openings in the United States has accelerated, and the company continues to expand cooperation with bookstore and other channels, introducing more locally exclusive products. The company has reached a cooperation with the second largest chain bookstore in the United States, Books-A-Million, and starting from September, Books-A-Million's stores nationwide and official website will simultaneously launch new POP MART products, accelerating market expansion. In addition, the recent joint release of Skullpanda in North America has garnered high attention with a TikTok official video play count of 1.5 million and over 137,000 likes. Acceleration of momentum for Star Man IP, focus on performance in the peak season of 2025Q4 (1) In 2025Q3, revenue from offline and online channels in China increased by 130%-135% and 300%-305% year-on-year. Offline: According to the bank's statistics, as of the end of 2025Q3, there were 424 POP MART stores on the mainland of China (excluding pop-up stores) and 2371 Siasun Robot & Automation stores. Online: According to Chanmama, the three core accounts on Douyin in 2025Q3 had a total GMV of 733 million yuan (up 208% year-on-year and 19% month-on-month); average GMV was 7.32 million yuan (up 929% year-on-year and 25% month-on-month). In September, there was a Super Category Day on Douyin with a GMV of 320 million yuan, setting a new monthly record. (2) The pace of launching plush/MEGA products is accelerating, and the momentum of Star Man is increasing. In 2025Q3, 20 blind box sets were launched, including 14 plush series (up by 8) and 25 MEGA products (up by 5), with a clear acceleration in the launch rhythm of plush and MEGA products. In 2025Q3, Star Man launched 2 plush and 2 blind box series, adding 1 plush product compared to the previous quarter. The recent release of the Halloween new product WHYSOSERIOUS plush series saw a high demand, with 9,000 people wanting the regular product, an overprice rate of 120%, second only to the regular labubu product (with 13,700 people wanting it and an overprice rate of 225%), while the regular product with the highest number of people wanting it had an overprice rate of 26%, indicating an acceleration in the momentum of the Star Man IP. (3) The fourth quarter is a peak season both domestically and overseas, with a series of festivals starting from October, such as Halloween, Double 11 in China and Thanksgiving and Black Friday overseas in November, and Christmas in December; followed by New Year's Day in January and the Spring Festival in February 2026. The bank believes that there will be more heavyweight products to come, with new products expected for important holidays.