Guosen: Overall growth in the sports outdoor sector in the third quarter of 25Q3 still has an advantage, with a clear trend towards polarization in structure.

Guosen's research report states that the overall growth of the online platforms in the sports outdoor industry accelerated in the third quarter, while prices showed a trend of differentiation. The prosperity of high-end segment positioning, new IP, and the price reduction of classic styles coexist. Only brands that can meet new segment demands or lead fashion trends can achieve double harvest in sales and profits. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, the industry is entering its peak season, with holiday promotions and annual new product releases. The focus is on the impact of brand marketing and product innovation. Key points from Guosen's report: Q3 saw growth pick up and penetration rates continue to rise, with footwear sales accelerating. According to third-party e-commerce data, the sports category saw a simultaneous increase in quantity and price in Q3 2025 (sales +6.8%, volume +4.4%, average price +2.6%), while outdoor categories achieved double-digit growth (sales +13.8%, volume +9.8%, average price +3.6%). Price growth in sports apparel mainly came from segmented categories, with average prices of sports casual wear and sports shoes showing a downward trend. Sports apparel sales saw double-digit growth, with running shoes accelerating to high double digits while basketball shoes saw a decline. Platforms like Douyin had the largest market share, with Tmall showing standout growth and JD maintaining stable growth. International brands: Nike continues to face adjustment pain, while Adidas excels in both footwear and apparel Nike continues to face significant adjustment pain, with a sharp year-on-year decline in sales of 12.4% and a decrease of 1.9 percentage points in market share to 8.7%. Its clothing saw slight growth, with running shoes seeing a high growth rate of 19%, while basketball shoes/casual shoes/sports casual shoes declined by 35%/26%/17% respectively. Adidas saw a significant increase in sales of 13% despite a slight decrease in average price, with market share rising 0.5 percentage points to 8.1%. This was attributed to the rapid growth of the Adidas Originals clothing line, double-digit growth in running shoes, and the popularity of retro basketball shoes, with overall stability in other sports fashion shoes. Domestic brands: Facing significant price competition, with positive feedback on new products Anta's running shoe specialization matrix strategy has shown significant results, with a narrowing decline in casual shoes. LI NING's market share is stable, with new products driving an increase in average price, running shoes seeing a growth of over 30%, and basketball shoes recovering with double-digit growth. Xtep's market share slightly increased, with running shoes seeing an accelerated growth rate of 19% and leading in average price within the professional matrix, while clothing saw double-digit growth under a pricing strategy. 361 Degrees saw a slight market share increase, with running shoes leading in double-digit growth under the professional matrix, basketball shoes continuing to decline, and casual shoes showing a narrowing decline. Summary of key points: Sports outdoor industry overall growth is still favorable, with a clear trend of structural polarization. In terms of growth: Among sports categories, sports apparel > sports shoes, with running shoes > other sports shoes. Mainstream sports brands include Xtep > Adidas > 361 Degrees > LI NING > Anta > Nike. Comparison of year-on-year changes in average prices: Sports casual wear > running shoes > sports casual shoes > casual shoes > basketball shoes, with LI NING > Adidas > Nike > Xtep > 361 Degrees > Anta. The decrease in average prices of sports apparel and sports shoes in this quarter reflects the pressure of demand and intensifying competition, but sports apparel overall saw better growth than sports shoes, attributed to the success of Adidas Originals and other high-end fashion brands, while the prosperity of running shoes in sports shoes was offset by the decline in casual fashion shoes. The differential momentum of brands reflects the influence of brand positioning and segmented category structure (such as running shoes generally performing better than other sports shoes, and high-end sports apparel doing better than mainstream sports apparel), as well as the brand's marketing and innovation capabilities (such as successful new IP products with high prices and fast sales growth), while homogeneous products face pressure of price decline. Recommendations: - Recommend LI NING (02331) for its strong ability to create hit new products in the mainstream sports field. - Recommend ANTA SPORTS (02020) for its advantage in multiple brand matrix. - Suggest to pay attention to XTEP INT'L (01368) and 361 DEGREES (01361) for their continuous growth driven by specialized running products. - Recommend TOPSPORTS (06110) as a core retailer benefiting from the new product cycle of international brands. - Also suggest to keep an eye on suppliers such as SHENZHOU INTL (02313) and Huali Industrial Group (300979.SZ). Risk factors: - Weak macroeconomic conditions. - Consumer recovery falling short of expectations. - International political and economic risks. - Significant fluctuations in exchange rates and raw material prices.