Looming Peace and Supply Glut Send Oil Prices Tumbling More Than 1%: Benchmarks Hit Five-Month Low

Global oil markets recorded a decline this week, with prices for both major benchmarks slipping nearly 3% and reaching their lowest levels since early May. The drop came after reports that U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin had agreed to hold discussions aimed at ending the Ukraine conflict, raising expectations that more Russian crude could return to international markets. The news reduced fears of supply shortages and added downward pressure on prices.

Brent crude closed at $61.06 per barrel, down 1.37%, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) ended the session at $57.46, a decline of 1.39%. In late trading on Friday, Brent hovered around $60.84, and WTI was near $57.29 per barrel. The planned Trump–Putin meeting, reportedly to take place in Budapest within the next two weeks, was seen as a potential turning point for oil supply dynamics.
Market strategist Daniel Hynes of ANZ noted that the development helped ease market concerns about tighter global supply, prompting traders to anticipate a possible increase in Russian output.

Further weighing on sentiment, the International Energy Agency (IEA) revised its projections, estimating that the global oil market could see a supply surplus of 2.4 million barrels per day by 2026, following an additional 3 million barrels per day added this year. The agency also adjusted its forecast for demand growth in 2025 to 700,000 barrels per day, slightly below its previous outlook of 740,000 barrels.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that American crude stockpiles rose by 3.5 million barrels during the week ending October 10, bringing inventories to about 423.8 million barrels. Analysts surveyed by Reuters had expected a much smaller increase of roughly 288,000 barrels. The EIA also noted that U.S. crude production reached a record high of 13.636 million barrels per day, reflecting continued output strength despite seasonal refinery maintenance.

Adding to the bearish tone, renewed trade tensions between the United States and China reignited worries about global economic growth and future fuel demand. Traders remain cautious about potential disruptions in Russian oil flows, though Moscow has expressed confidence that its energy cooperation with India will remain stable. Earlier in the week, President Trump said that Prime Minister Narendra Modi had assured him India would halt its purchases of Russian crude.