Guolian Futures: Trading in the polysilicon spot market is light, and inventory digestion is slowing down.

According to the statistics of Guolian Futures, the transactions in the polysilicon spot market are light, prices are loosening, and it is expected that prices will fluctuate at a high level next week. In general, the trend of destocking has slowed down, and in the short term, the polysilicon market is still mainly focused on stabilizing prices and destocking. As of April 2025, the average price of P-type polysilicon was 33,800 yuan/ton, which remained flat compared to April 10, 2025. On the 17th, the average price of N-type polysilicon was 40,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/ton compared to April 10, 2025, with a decrease of 2.44%. Due to the self-discipline agreement, this week's inventory is 273,000 tons, a decrease of 1.33% from the previous week. On the supply side: One company underwent maintenance and inspection this month, and another company added new production capacity. Overall, the impact on this month's production is not significant. According to the current production schedule of polysilicon companies, the output of polysilicon this month is expected to be around 100,000 tons. The upcoming peak water period at the end of the second quarter is expected to bring some shipping pressure to polysilicon companies. On the inventory side: This week's inventory is 263,000 tons, a decrease of 1.33% from the previous week; currently, there is significant inventory pressure in the polysilicon industry, with inventory mainly concentrated in polysilicon manufacturers and some downstream pulling crystal manufacturers. The downstream demand for replenishment is the main focus, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation in the polysilicon market. Regional production capacity: Production capacity in various production regions remains stable. This week marks the first week of April, and most of the market is in the stage of negotiating orders, with fewer transaction volumes. Currently, the mentality of buyers and sellers is in a game of chess, with downstream pulling crystal companies mostly adopting a wait-and-see attitude due to insufficient urgency in purchasing, polysilicon companies still facing inventory pressure, and overall industry inventory pressure being high. The mentality of downstream pricing pressure is strong, and downstream businesses generally anticipate a decline in future silicon prices before replenishing their stocks. In addition, the earthquake in Myanmar on March 28 has caused some impact on the production of monocrystalline pulling rods in Yunnan and Sichuan provinces, and some deliveries of polysilicon orders have been delayed. Overall, there is a trend of slowing down destocking, and in the short term, the polysilicon market is still mainly focused on stabilizing prices and destocking. Cost and profit: After the improvement of the supply-demand situation in the medium and long term, profits have improved to some extent, and losses are gradually being repaired. This week, the average production cost of polysilicon is 41,444.44 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.2% compared to the previous week. Gross profit and gross profit margin decreased to -1,391.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.7% compared to the previous week. Polysilicon import and export volume Import volume: In February 2025, China's import volume of polysilicon was 3128.134 tons, an increase of 35.09% compared to the previous month and an increase of 28.35% year-on-year. Malaysia is the largest supplier, importing 2131.2 tons of polysilicon bricks from Malaysia that month, an increase of 289.47% compared to the previous month and 142.62% year-on-year. Germany is the second largest supplier, importing 453.737 tons of polysilicon from Germany that month, a decrease of 67.4% compared to the previous month and 68.44% year-on-year. Export volume: In February 2025, China's export volume of polysilicon was 2238.437 tons, an increase of 43.18% compared to the previous month and an increase of 70.21% year-on-year. Malaysia is the largest export destination, exporting 1,296 tons of polysilicon to Malaysia that month, an increase of 40.71% compared to the previous month and an increase of 264.71% year-on-year. India is the second largest export destination, exporting 408.02 tons of polysilicon to India that month, an increase of 709.56% compared to the previous month.