Galaxy Securities: Core CPI growth rate may continue to rise year-on-year in the third quarter.

Galaxy Securities research report stated that since February, the growth rate of core CPI has continued to recover, with core CPI increasing by 0.7% year-on-year in June, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, reaching a new high in nearly 14 months. Galaxy Securities believes that the main reasons for the sustained recovery of core CPI are the rising prices of gold jewelry, the support of the policy of trading in old for new on durable goods prices, and the moderate rebound in service prices. Looking ahead to the second half of the year, the price of gold is currently at a phased high level, with short-term fluctuations being the main trend, and further increases may still require catalytic factors; constrained by the early release of demand for some durable goods and the impact of high base effects, durable goods prices may rise first and then slightly fall back; there is still room for the repair of service prices, but the momentum may be slow. Overall, in the third quarter, the year-on-year growth rate of core CPI may continue to rise supported by durable consumer goods and summer travel demand, with a slight decline possible in the fourth quarter.