Lates News

Dowling Securities expects that the upcoming U.S. CPI report for May will confirm that inflation is slowing down but stubbornly remains at high levels. The institution predicts that the core CPI for May will decrease to 0.23% month-on-month and remain stable at 2.8% year-on-year; while the overall CPI will decrease to 0.4% month-on-month and increase to 4.2% year-on-year. Looking at the breakdown, it is expected that commodity prices in May will increase by 0.13% compared to the three-month average. Most of the increase comes from core goods excluding cars, with categories such as household goods and clothing showing increases. It is expected that the continued decline in used car prices will partially offset this increase. Additionally, the ongoing impact of oil price shocks and tariffs is expected to push core inflation to around 3.0% year-on-year in June. If aviation fuel costs are transmitted to ticket prices beyond expectations, there is an upward risk. Looking ahead to the second half of 2026, it is predicted that core inflation will not show a significant decline. Core goods prices excluding cars will continue to show strength, while housing costs will normalize at high levels.