JPMorgan Chase predicts that US bond yields will rise next year, and expectations of rate cuts are expected to weaken.

Morgan Stanley strategists say that due to the market already digesting too many expectations of a Fed rate cut, U.S. Treasuries are unlikely to replicate this year's strong performance in 2026. The bank predicts that the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries will fall by about 50 basis points to around 4.08% in 2025, before rising to 4.35% by the end of next year. This makes Morgan Stanley one of the more bearish forecasters on U.S. bonds. The median expectation of economists and strategists surveyed by the media is that the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries will be 4.06% by the end of 2026.