Stocks, bonds, and currency markets face a "triple kill," Japan approaching the edge of recession.

Currently, the Japanese economy is flashing a red light again, approaching the brink of recession. In the third quarter of 2025, Japan's real GDP fell by 1.8% year-on-year, the first negative growth in six quarters. Affected by US tariff policies, Japan's exports to the US in October decreased by 3.1% year-on-year, shrinking for seven consecutive months. In the third quarter, the export of goods and services fell by 1.2% quarter-on-quarter, with external demand changing from a positive to a negative contribution to economic growth. Meanwhile, domestic demand also struggled to provide effective support, with personal consumption, accounting for more than half of Japan's economy, increasing by only 0.1% quarter-on-quarter. High prices continued to burden people's lives and suppress purchasing power. Business equipment investment increased by 1.0% quarter-on-quarter, but the leading indicator, "orders for civil machinery excluding ships and power", fell by 2.1% quarter-on-quarter, the first negative growth in four quarters. Private residential investment fell by over 30% year-on-year, almost offsetting the post-pandemic recovery. The Japanese economy faces long-standing structural problems, including accelerated aging and declining birth rates, labor shortages, slowing productivity growth, declining industrial competitiveness, and technological innovation capabilities, weakening the momentum of economic growth. The potential economic growth rate has long been hovering between 0.1% and 0.9%. The 21.3 trillion yen stimulus plan is just the early deployment of the Koshii Sanae government, with a more extensive growth strategy yet to be put in place. However, if subsequent policies fail to effectively address the underlying issues of the economy and continue to rely on fiscal expansion and prioritize security logic, it will not only fail to help revitalize the Japanese economy but will also lead it into a more complex development impasse.