"Sister Wood" Investment Company ARK's major prediction: SpaceX's market value will reach 2.5 trillion US dollars by 2030.

"Wood Sister" Cathy Wood's investment firm, Ark Invest, predicts that by 2030, the enterprise value of Elon Musk's aerospace company SpaceX will reach approximately $2.5 trillion. According to ARK's open-source model, this valuation is derived through Monte Carlo simulations that consider 17 key variables reflecting SpaceX's growth potential over the next twenty years. The model provides three possible valuation scenarios: a base scenario of $2.5 trillion, a pessimistic scenario of $1.7 trillion, and an optimistic scenario reaching $3.1 trillion. These predictions demonstrate the differences resulting from strategic initiatives such as satellite development and deployment, as well as the eventual focus on colonizing Mars. The core of SpaceX's ambitious future plans lies in the full deployment of the "Starlink" satellite constellation, expected to be achieved by 2035. Once operational, Starlink is projected to generate annual revenues of up to $300 billion, accounting for approximately 15% of global communication spending. This expansion highlights the transformative impact of affordable and high-speed satellite internet connectivity worldwide. Furthermore, the reusability of Starships is another key factor in Ark Invest's evaluation. By reducing fleet turnover time and lowering launch costs, SpaceX aims to make significant progress in both Earth and Mars projects. The implementation of Starships aligns with the "Wright's Law," which suggests that efficiency improvements will accelerate investment returns through increased launch frequency. Ark Invest also points out potential risks, including disruptions from competitive innovations and challenges SpaceX faces in operational execution in the demanding field of space exploration. Musk stated last Saturday that reports of SpaceX recently raising funds at a valuation of $800 billion are inaccurate; SpaceX has maintained positive cash flow for years and conducts regular stock buybacks twice a year, providing liquidity to employees and investors. Valuation growth depends on the progress of the Starship and Starlink projects, as well as acquiring global direct satellite communication frequencies, which will significantly expand our target market size. In addition to internal share trading in the secondary market, SpaceX is accelerating its preparations for going public. According to sources, the company has informed institutional investors that its goal is to launch a company-wide initial public offering (IPO) in the second half of next year. This is a significant acceleration compared to CFO Johnsen's previous statement in 2024 that the Starlink business IPO would still take a few more years. SpaceX's management has discussed the possibility of splitting off and listing the Starlink satellite internet business for many years. Musk has been cautious in the past about the timing of a listing. This recent news indicates that the company seems inclined to IPO the entire group, not just Starlink. Its Starlink low-orbit internet network has deployed over 9,000 satellites, significantly ahead of competitors including Amazon.com, Inc.'s Amazon Leo. As SpaceX accelerates the development of the more powerful Starship super heavy rocket, the company plans to further expand the size of the Starlink satellite constellation and take on future lunar and manned deep space missions.