The number of initial unemployment claims in the United States unexpectedly fell to a three-year low last week, indicating no signs of deterioration in the job market.

The data released on Thursday showed that the initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States for the week ending November 29 were 191,000, the lowest since September 24, 2022, and below market expectations of 220,000. The continuing claims for unemployment benefits for the week ending November 22 were 1.939 million, below the market expectation of 1.961 million; the four-week moving average of initial claims for unemployment benefits for the week ending November 29 was 214,750. This lower-than-expected initial claims for unemployment benefits data indicates that there are no signs of significant deterioration in the US labor market, but it does not seem to have a significant impact on the prospects of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve this month. According to the CME Group's "FedWatch" tool, traders expect an 87.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed this month. It is reported that the data includes the Thanksgiving holiday last Thursday, and application data during holidays usually fluctuate significantly. The current level of initial claims for unemployment benefits is consistent with historically low levels of layoffs, which may alleviate concerns about a sharp deterioration in the labor market. The ADP employment report on Wednesday showed the largest decline in private sector employment in over two and a half years in November. It is worth noting that the highly anticipated November non-farm payroll report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics was originally scheduled for release on Friday but was postponed due to the government shutdown, and is now set to be released on December 16. Economists believe that the US labor market is still in a "no layoffs, no hiring" state.