Institutions expect retail prices of refined oil products to rise in this round.

A new round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on September 24. Institutions expect that retail prices of refined oil will be raised in this round. Jinlianchuang analyst Zhao Yinghan said that because the increase in crude oil prices in the early part of this pricing cycle has already been locked in, domestic refined oil retail prices will be raised, but as international crude oil prices have fallen continuously recently, the final increase has narrowed significantly from earlier expectations. According to Jinlianchuang's calculation, as of the ninth working day on September 23, the average price of the reference crude oil varieties was $102.20 per barrel, with a change rate of 8.62%, and domestic gasoline and diesel retail prices should be raised by 490 yuan per ton. This pricing window is at 24:00 on September 24, and refined oil retail prices are expected to be raised, but the expected increase has narrowed from 0.8 yuan per liter to 0.6 yuan per liter. Since the beginning of this year, domestic oil prices have undergone eighteen rounds of adjustment, with the overall pattern being "twelve increases, five decreases, and one suspension." Among them, in order to mitigate the impact of rising international oil prices, the state has taken regulatory measures on refined oil prices three times. If this round of price adjustment is raised as expected, the price adjustment pattern for 2026 will become "thirteen increases, five decreases, and one suspension."