UBS: Warsh is completely different from previous Fed chairs, possibly signaling a larger regime shift.

UBS released a research report stating that Fed Chair Warsh increasingly appears very different from his predecessors, and the potential rupture or regime shift could be larger than the market originally expected. The bank noted that the situations in August and September were not dominated by narratives such as "AI disinflation to the rescue"; instead, Warsh reinforced his anti-inflation rhetoric on every public occasion, continuing to distance himself from his predecessor's style. The bank believes this is no longer merely a change of Fed chair, but increasingly resembles a regime shift, and the way central banks are analyzed may also need to be adjusted. The bank also estimated that since the Congressional Budget Office's last ten-year deficit forecast, the yield curve has shifted almost in parallel; if rates move up by 70 to 80 basis points, the federal government's net interest expenses over the next 10 years could increase by about $2.5 trillion.