Brokerage Morning Meeting Highlights | Rebound Continues but Beware of Pre-Holiday Disturbances

Last Friday, the market fluctuated and rallied, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising nearly 1% and the ChiNext Index gaining over 2%. The combined turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 2.08 trillion yuan. On the board, recently listed sub-new stocks collectively surged, with Shenyang Blower Works Group once rising over 290% during intraday trading; concepts such as real estate, chip industry chain, photoresist, advanced packaging, and memory chips showed active performance. On the decline side, the automobile sector showed weaker trends. As of close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.94%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.72%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.25%. Huatai believes the rebound continues but pre-holiday disturbances should be guarded against; CITIC SEC believes to actively seize the final offensive window of the year; Zhongtai believes the turning point for dual innovation boards should be pursued while winning. Huatai: Rebound continues but pre-holiday disturbances should be guarded against After the Federal Reserve's rate hike was implemented last week, the tech sector recovered. The short-term uncertainty in overseas liquidity has temporarily subsided, potentially opening a rebound window. The tech sector, previously suppressed by overseas liquidity expectations, may benefit relatively. However, factors such as weak domestic economic and credit data, declining breadth of earnings recovery, and cautious pre-National Day effects still constitute suppressing factors, and the market's upward elasticity may be limited. Maintain the judgment of a rebound rather than a trend-driven market. In the medium term, structural opportunities remain, but the breadth of recovery is narrowing, and the tone shifts to neutral. In allocation, focus on tech with eased suppression, innovative drugs, and chemical chains with allocation gaps, while dividends remain as a bottom position allocation to reduce volatility. CITIC SEC: Actively seize the final offensive window of the year In the latter stage of an industrial super cycle, after institutional stocks peak, there is usually a round of new highs in non-institutional stocks. The current AI narrative, the position of the earnings cycle, and the global monetary environment easily constrain institutional stocks: AI computing power investment has not slowed, but market expectations for the commercialization space of frontier model manufacturers are adjusting; the non-financial earnings of all A-shares may continue to rise quarter-on-quarter in 2026Q3, but the peak year-on-year growth rate may appear in the fourth quarter of this year; the Federal Reserve shows a tough stance on inflation control, creating a relatively tight macro liquidity atmosphere at least within the year. From an institutional perspective and mindset, these factors will undoubtedly constrain the height of the market. However, from the angle of short-term sentiment and chip cycles, combined with the catalysis of third-quarter reports, the market has the soil for active funds to attack new technologies and new themes. It is recommended to actively seize the final offensive window of the year. Zhongtai: The turning point for dual innovation boards should be pursued while winning Since April 2025, there have been three major tech rallies in total, with the pace typically starting with the overseas computing power chain, then the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, and finally the domestic computing power chain. At the end of each major rally phase, the upward space of the domestic computing power chain is roughly on par with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index. After the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index catches up, the valuation repair space for the domestic computing power chain is also expected to truly open up. This article is reprinted from "Cailian Press", edited by GMTEight: Liu Jiayin.