Preview of US Stock Market | All three major stock index futures declined. NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US) is set to release its financial report, and the global central bank annual meeting is coming up this week. The Bascent will announce the "strictest sanctions" against Iran tonight.
On August 24th (Monday), U.S. stock index futures fell across the board before the market opened.
Market Movements Before Trading
1. On August 24 (Monday), U.S. stock futures for the three major stock indices all fell prior to the market opening. As of the time of writing, Dow futures were down 0.09%, S&P 500 futures were down 0.14%, and Nasdaq futures were down 0.48%.
2. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index was up 0.02%, the UK FTSE 100 index was up 0.05%, the French CAC40 index was down 0.10%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index was down 0.11%.
3. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil was down 1.91%, trading at $85.40 a barrel. Brent crude was down 1.53%, trading at $91.25 a barrel.
Market News
NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US) earnings report coincides with Jackson Hole! This week, the market faces multiple tests. The interplay of AI faith, inflation dilemmas, and fiscal sudden attacks. After a turbulent week of mixed retail performance, rising bond yields, and unexpected intervention from the Treasury Department, investors will face an intensive schedule of events over the next five trading days. Trump plans to unveil economic countermeasures against Iran; AI giant NVIDIA Corporation will release its earnings report, marking the conclusion of earnings season for tech giants; key inflation data will also be released, guiding the Federal Reserves next rate decision. Additionally, economists and central bank officials will gather for the Jackson Hole Global Central Banking Conference.
At 2 AM tonight, the U.S. will impose its "toughest sanctions" on Iran. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will hold a press conference in Beijing at 2:00 AM on the 25th, having previously warned of the implementation of "the most severe sanctions in history" against Iran. Vivek Dhar, a commodity analyst at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, stated that it is still unclear whether the U.S.s policy to economically isolate Iran will be effective. If the measures work as expected, Irans capacity to respond with increased violence will become an escalating risk that the energy market must consider.
Yellen can tap nearly $1 trillion from the Treasury General Account to fund bond buybacks. According to two senior U.S. Treasury officials, the Treasury can use its funds in its General Account (TGA) to support expenditures related to the purchase of government bonds. Yellen has currently increased the balance of the TGA to approximately $950 billion. Last week, the Treasury unexpectedly doubled the size of bond buybacks, but skepticism regarding the actual funds Yellen can utilize has led to a temporary effect on suppressing treasury yields.
The weakening dollar combined with policy uncertainty has pushed gold prices to a more than three-month high. As of Monday, spot gold is trading around $4,645 per ounce, having earlier touched $4,660 per ounce, the highest level since mid-May, with gold prices up more than 5% last week. The dollar has weakened due to the Treasurys buyback plan for long-term bonds, making dollar-denominated gold more attractive to investors holding other currencies. Moreover, a portfolio manager from Fidelity International previously stated that the gold holdings in his managed fund have doubled, betting on a Federal Reserve credibility crisis and the declining safe-haven status of the dollar.
Middle East production recovery slower than expected, Morgan Stanley sharply raises Brent crude outlook. In a research note, Morgan Stanley raised its Brent crude oil price forecasts for multiple future quarters, citing that the recovery pace of Middle Eastern supply is slower than expected, leading the oil market to experience a continued supply shortage into the fourth quarter of 2026 and the first quarter of 2027. The bank raised its Brent price forecast for Q3 2026 from $75 per barrel to $90, and further raised it to $100 for Q4, while also increasing its predictions for Q1 and Q2 of 2027 to $95 and $90 respectively.
SoftBank plans to issue 1 trillion retail bonds in Japan. SoftBank Group plans to issue a record-sized 1 trillion (approximately $6.3 billion) retail bond. The group is raising funds to fulfill its investment commitments to OpenAI. This bond issuance will be SoftBanks third offering aimed at retail investors this year, having previously raised 418 billion in April and 260 billion in June.
As Bitcoin soars, ETF sees a record net inflow of $1.92 billion for the week, the highest in ten months. Last week, as Bitcoin prices surged, spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced the strongest single-week capital inflow in ten months. Data shows that 13 U.S.-listed funds saw a net inflow of $1.92 billion, the highest since early October last year. This wave of funding coincided with Bitcoins approximately 23% rise last week, marking the largest single-week increase in over three years. As of the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $78,000.
Stock News
Alibaba (BABA.US) management steps up purchases, with Joe Tsai and Wu Yongming purchasing HKD 80 million and 40 million worth of Alibaba shares respectively. According to the latest information from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, following Alibaba Group Holding Limited Sponsored ADRs announcement of an HKD 80 billion new share placement plan, Chairman Joe Tsai and CEO Wu Yongming bought a total of about HKD 120 million worth of Alibaba shares, demonstrating confidence in the companys AI strategy. The day prior, Alibaba Group announced the HKD 80 billion new share placement plan, with all proceeds to be invested in full-stack AI capabilities and AI infrastructure development.
Pre-market plunge! Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (AAOI.US) plans to raise $600 million through a secondary offering. On Monday, in pre-market trading, Applied Optoelectronics, Inc., a leading player in optical communications, saw its stock price plummet over 14%. Reports indicate that the company plans to raise $600 million through a stock offering, raising investor concerns over further stock dilution, particularly as the company has already utilized similar financing instruments multiple times this year. As of last Fridays close, Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. stock price had increased over 258% for the year.
Over a thousand transactions in a month! Washington stock god Trumps June trading list exposed: frequently buying and selling Palantir (PLTR.US) and significantly adjusting VIG. According to disclosed documents, U.S. President Trump conducted over 1,000 securities transactions in June, including substantial purchases of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B.US), Visa (V.US), Mastercard (MA.US), Palantir, and Cintas (CTAS.US). The total value of these transactions ranged between $78.1 million and $263.1 million. The disclosure document shows a range for each transaction rather than exact figures. The largest single transaction occurred on June 22 when Trump sold between $5 million and $25 million of the Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF (VIG).
Reports say Samsung Electronics (SSNLF.US) may increase DRAM production slower than expected in the second half of the year. Reports indicate that despite AI-driven memory demand exacerbating the supply shortage of DRAM, Samsung Electronics is expected to ramp up production at a slower pace than market expectations in the second half of this year. This is mainly due to Samsungs prioritization of transitioning from the 10nm fifth-generation (1b) process to the 10nm sixth-generation (1c) process, focusing more on improving yield rather than expanding production.
Two Wall Street titans adjust their portfolios simultaneously! Both liquidate Broadcom Inc. (AVGO.US) and heavily invest in Alphabet (GOOGL.US), signaling an important shift in AI. Two top investors on Wall Street, Stanley Druckenmiller and Dan Loeb, have made the same moveliquidating their positions in Broadcom Inc. and shifting to significant investments in Alphabet. This portfolio adjustment reflects their changing views on AI investment logic: from selling shovels by chip suppliers to investing in AI platform companies with a complete closed-loop ecosystem.
PDD Holdings Inc. Sponsored ADR Class A (PDD.US) pre-market rose over 5%, with Q2 adjusted net profit exceeding expectations. PDD Holdings Inc. Sponsored ADR Class A recently reported that its second-quarter revenue reached RMB 112.36 billion, a year-on-year increase of about 8%; the net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders, under Non-GAAP accounting, was approximately RMB 28.5 billion, exceeding the market expectation of RMB 28.02 billion. The adjusted earnings per ADS for the second quarter was RMB 19.33, higher than the expected RMB 18.51.
XPeng, Inc. ADR Sponsored Class A (XPEV.US) reported Q2 revenue of RMB 19.74 billion, with a gross margin of 20.7% exceeding expectations. XPengs total revenue for Q2 was RMB 19.74 billion, an 8% year-on-year increase and a 51.5% quarter-on-quarter increase. The gross margin was 20.7%, above the estimated 19.2%. However, the net loss widened from RMB 480 million in the same period last year to RMB 1.34 billion, nearly 1.8 times larger year-on-year. For Q3, the company estimates total revenue between RMB 21.7 billion and RMB 23.4 billion, with vehicle deliveries between 115,000 and 121,000.
Important Economic Data and Event Forecasts
Beijing time at 2:00 AM the next day: U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen will hold a press conference on specific actions to increase economic sanctions on Iran.
Earnings Forecast
Tuesday morning: Tuya, Inc. Sponsored ADR Class A (TUYA.US)
Tuesday pre-market: Bank of Montreal (BMO.US), Vipshop Holdings Ltd Sponsored ADR (VIPS.US), NOAH HOLDINGS (NOAH.US), EHang Holdings Ltd. Sponsored ADR Class A (EH.US), Tuniu Corp. Sponsored ADR Class A (TOUR.US)
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