Industrial: The blockade of the Strait forces an energy transformation, and the marine engineering and automotive shipping sectors are ushering in long-term investment opportunities.

Industrial has released a research report stating that the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is compelling a global energy transition, creating long-term benefits for marine engineering and automotive shipping. To reduce dependence on Middle Eastern oil and gas, countries are accelerating their own offshore oil and gas exploration and offshore wind power development. At the same time, high oil prices are driving a rapid shift towards electrification in road transport, which is expected to position marine engineering and automotive shipping as high ground for growth in the shipping industry. Heavy lift multi-purpose vessels combine resilience for traditional cargoes, elasticity of marine engineering demand, and expectations for the clearing of aging vessels; semi-submersible vessels are scarce with high barriers to entry; automotive carriers benefit from the trade in electric vehicles and an increase in China's export share, with clear expectations of supply tightening. Industrial's main viewpoints are as follows: Marine Engineering: The Core of Energy Supply Transition Marine engineering includes three main sectors: offshore oil and gas engineering, offshore renewable energy engineering, and marine infrastructure engineering, with special-purpose vessels playing a core role. Since 2020, the industry has entered a second upward cycle driven by renewable energy, with demand gradually decoupling from oil price fluctuations. Looking ahead, China's 14th Five-Year Plan requires the installation of over 100GW of offshore wind power by 2030 (requiring an average of 10.6GW to be completed annually), and Europe has an annual demand for 20.2GW of wind power equipment imports from 2026 to 2030, all of which require the participation of marine engineering vessels. Specifically regarding vessel types: Heavy lift and multi-purpose vessels are the mainstay of marine engineering transport. Since 2022, rental rates for these vessels have significantly widened the premium compared to container ships and bulk carriers, breaking away from traditional shipping cycles. On the demand side, general cargo (containers, breakbulk) constitutes a ballast for demand, while marine engineering equipment transport (such as wind turbine blades and tower sections) represents a new source of growth. The supply side landscape is relatively tight: 64% of vessels are over 15 years old, and 35% are over 20 years old, significantly higher than for mainstream vessel types. Although the existing order volume has risen to 6.29 million deadweight tons, it constitutes only 18.8% of the fleet, below the 35% share of vessels older than 20 years. Furthermore, container ships and tankers are occupying dry docks, making it difficult for new orders to be delivered before 2029, and the addition of new capacity over the next three years is unlikely to offset the clearing of existing capacity. Semi-Submersible Vessels: A Scarce Vessel Type with Strong Clearing Expectations Semi-submersible vessels serve dual roles as super carriers and installation platforms, responsible for transporting and floating installation of large marine engineering equipment such as drilling platforms, offshore wind turbine bases, and submerged tube tunnels. There are only 61 vessels globally, totaling 2.815 million deadweight tons, of which 43% are over 20 years old and 30% are over 30 years old, indicating significant clearing potential. Currently, there are only three vessels on order (accounting for 7.4% of capacity), which cannot cover the existing clearance capacity. The semi-submersible vessel market is highly concentrated: two leading companies (Cosco Shipping Specialized Carriers and Boskalis) together hold 54.5% market share, with high entry barriers. Chinese operators have established a foothold and are expected to achieve excess returns. Automotive Shipping: Entering a New Upward Cycle with Electrification as the Theme From 2020 to 2025, global maritime automotive trade volume is expected to grow from 16.76 million to 26.51 million units (CAGR of 9.6%), with the trade volume of electric vehicles achieving a CAGR of 28.2%, increasing its share to 22%. China's automotive exports surged from 990,000 to 7.06 million vehicles (CAGR of 48.0%), contributing to 57.9% of the global automotive trade increase. In the future, the dual trends of oil-to-electric and emerging markets will further drive long-term expansion in automotive trade. The rental prices of automotive carriers are expected to rebound to $80,000 per day by July 2026, showing significant elasticity. Vessels older than 15 years account for 57%, and those over 20 years account for 26%. The delivery peak has already passed in 2025, with only 20.63% of orders on hand, and high vessel prices combined with long wait times lock in a lack of new supply before 2029. In terms of competitive landscape, Japanese and South Korean shipowners dominate the top four positions (holding 44.8% market share), with a CR10 of 75.7%. The share of Chinese shipowners remains insignificant, failing to match China's status as a major automotive exporting country. Under the national vehicle, national shipping logic, there is significant room for development. Risk Warning: Market environment risks, transport operation risks, oil price fluctuations affecting profits.