Lyon: It is expected that SAMSONITE (01910) will see a slowdown in sales in the next quarter, and the rating has been downgraded to "outperform the market."

Citi released a research report stating that it has downgraded SAMSONITE (01910) from "Highly Confident to Outperform" to "Outperform," with a target price cut from HK$22 to HK$19. The sales forecast for 2026 to 2028 has been lowered by 1%, and the adjusted net profit forecast has been decreased by 4% to 11%. It believes that the performance outlook for the second half of the year and the progress of the dual listing in the U.S. will be key catalysts for the stock price. SAMSONITE is set to announce its second quarter results. Citi expects that due to weak consumer demand in the U.S. and Europe, as well as the impact of the conflict between Israel and Iran, quarterly sales are expected to decline by 2% year-on-year at constant exchange rates, a slowdown compared to a 0.4% increase in the first quarter. The gross margin and adjusted EBITDA margin are forecasted to reach 59% and 13.2%, remaining relatively stable quarter-on-quarter. Looking ahead, with hopes that a ceasefire agreement can be maintained, coupled with a strong seasonal sales base in the second half of the year and strict cost control, Citi estimates that SAMSONITE's performance in the third quarter and the second half of the year will improve. The current forecast anticipates that sales in 2026 may grow by 3% year-on-year, while adjusted net profit is expected to decline by 20% year-on-year.